Reality vs. Perception Plays Key Role in Betting Angels/Royals Tonight

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, August 13, 2015 1:32 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015 1:32 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant breaks down Thursday’s game between the Angels and Royals. Will Kansas City get back on track after suffering their first loss in six games on Thursday? Read his revealing betting preview article for those answers and more.

Angels Attempt to End Hex versus Royals
The Angels and Royals begin a four game series on Friday in Kansas City with the first pitch slated for 8:10 PM ET. Kansas City will look to go 8-0 in their last eight games versus the Angels. A pair of right-handed starting pitchers will square off in this matchup. It will be Garrett Richards for the Angels and Jeremy Guthrie goes for Kansas City.

 

Recent Road Futility
By virtue of last night’s thirteen inning 3-2 loss at US Cellular Field in Chicago, the Angels have now lost nine consecutive away games. A defeat tonight would mark the franchise’s longest road losing streak since 1969 when they dropped fourteen in a row.

 

Ice Cold Bats Versus a Struggling Starting Pitcher
The Angels bats need to awaken if they hope to end this road skid. They were anemic offensively while suffering a three game sweep at the hands of the White Sox in their previous series. During that three game set, the Angels scored a combined four runs, had a team batting average of .196, and went 1-for-32 with runners in scoring position. They may get a reprieve when facing the Royals Jeremy Guthrie tonight. Guthrie has a large 5.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. He’s also allowed a whopping 6 home runs in 18.0 innings pitched during his previous three starts, posting a huge 8.50 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in those outings . This is an Angels batting order that has sufficient power, evidenced by 122 home runs hit in 113 games.

 

Deceptive Performance Line in Recent Starts
Garrett Richards has a poor 5.04 ERA over his previous three starts. However, when looking inside his numbers during those outings, he was victimized by allowing 5 home runs. Despite Kansas City having the best record in the American League, home run power isn’t one of their strengths. The Royals have hit only 89 home runs so far in 2015. Getting back to Richards last three starts, he compiled a solid 1.22 WHIP in those outings which is more indicative of his misleading ERA. According to the MLB betting odds at Heritage, the Angels are currently a -112 money line favorite. Richards has gone a very profitable 25-9 in his team starts since 2014 as a money line favorite of -110 or more. As a matter of fact, the Angels as a team are a superb 43-23 (.652) this season as a money line favorite of -110 or more.

 

Final Analysis
It certainly would be easy for an inexperienced MLB bettor to be duped when looking at the money line in this matchup. On one side we have a Kansas City team which has gone an outstanding 39-19 (.672) at home in 2015, and has defeated today’s opponent eight consecutive times. On the other, we have a team which is on the verge of their worst road losing streak in 46 years, and can’t hit their way out of a paper bag during recent games. One thing you can be 100% certain of, sportsbooks aren’t that kind, and by no stretch of the imagination in business to give away easy money. I’m siding with the road team for one of my MLB picks on Friday.

MLB Pick: Angels -112 at Heritage.

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