Razor Sharp Betting Edge in Cleveland Indians vs. NY Yankees ALDS Game 4

Mark Lathrop

Monday, October 9, 2017 12:52 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 9, 2017 12:52 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, digs deep to find a huge edge in Game 4 of this series between the Yankees and Indians, with the starting pitching under pressure taking a big role in his Monday MLB Pick.

Game 3 of the American League Divisional series between the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees played out as advertised with two dominant starters plying their wares and pitching gems. The 1-0 final score easily cashed my Under 8.5 run pick on the game and ended a very successful day for me at the window. Game 4 brings another elimination game for the Yankees and their ace Luis Severino to the mound, as the Indians look to counter with Josh Tomlin. Within an hour of game 3 ending the Yankees have opened as heavy favorites at -165 on the moneyline at 5Dimes, while the O/U total is listed at 7.5 runs across the odds board.

Josh Tomlin was initially listed as the starter in this game for the Indians, yet they have since pulled a pitching change from the standard rotation. The Indians will now start Trevor Bauer on short rest against the Yankees in Game 4. Bauer pitched a gem in Game 1 with an 8/1 K/BB performance over 6.2 innings while just giving up 2 hits. It was the third win in a row for Bauer against the Yankees this year, and he has yet to give up more than one run in any start against them in 2017. Bauer has never started on short rest though; however, the Indians bullpen should be rested with the performance by Carlos Carrasco in game 3. Bauer is slightly less effective on the road this year than at home, with most of that difference due to his BB/9 rate going from 2.18 to 4.30 in that split.

The Yankees had to burn Luis Severino’s first postseason start in the wild-card playoff game, and they are lucky to have survived it. He didn’t make it through the first inning of that game, as the right-hander gave up 2 home runs, 4 hits, and a walk after just one out. His last start against the Indians wasn’t much better as Severino gave up 3 home runs, all solo shots, in a 6-2 loss against Cleveland on August 28th. On paper, Severino doesn’t have holes in his repertoire to take advantage of with BAA splits of .218 against lefties and .198 against righties, but those aren’t pressure numbers. I’m looking at Severino’s FIP in high leverage situations, an analogy to a playoff start, and see it at 5.00 on the season.

In comparison, Trevor Bauer has an elite high leverage FIP of 1.83 on the year. I see this as a huge edge and also don’t like the thought of tailing the Yankees after they used their best relievers in Game 3 for extended outings. I will back the Indians at +155 at 5Dimes to finish this series for my Monday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Indians on the Money Line
Best Line is +155 at 5Dimes

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2017 MLB Record, 218-194-11, +9.34 units

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