Rays vs. Yankees MLB Picks: Think Twice Before Betting Run Total Based on Strong Offense Alone

Charles Stark

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:00 PM GMT

MLB odds makers have set the run total line at 8 as the Tampa Bay Rays take on the New York Yankees. After some further stat checking I am taking the under in this AL match up.

The Line
Tuesday's MLB odds total for this game was set at 8.5 but is currently offered at 8.  When thinking Rays and Yankees, and that this is an AL game, one might think the line is too low. But with the pitching matchup I think we get some good value in what I believe will be a low scoring game.  Yesterday these teams met with the Yankees winning 4-1 and the two teams combined for 15 hits.  Seems like that trend would get them to higher scoring game today, but with the underrated starting pitching matchup it looks like it will be a much similar contest.

 

Odorizzi and Who?
Jake Odorizzi is starting to come into his own as a major league starter.  He comes into this game with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.  Career wise he has a 3.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, really solid for a guy only 25 years old.    He has the kind of stuff to keep any good major league team off balance and he is usually good for at least six innings of work.  Chase Whitley comes in as a bit of an unknown and his numbers are not reflective of his ability with a 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in limited innings.  Some good news for him is that when he pitched in long stretches last year (six total times) he had solid numbers, when pitching five innings or more he averaged a 3.33 ERA.  His minor league numbers are also good with a 2.89 ERA in three years at AAA.

These teams come into this game together averaging over 9 runs a game.  With the line set with what looks to be a little low at 8 to 8.5 I am siding with the odds makers here and taking the 'under' for my MLB pick .  

MLB Picks: Bet under 8 at The Greek