Rays vs. Yankees Free Picks: Expect Less Runs In Game 3 With Odorizzi & Severino Putting Up Zeros

Rays vs. Yankees

Charles Stark

Sunday, August 14, 2016 1:49 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 14, 2016 1:49 PM UTC

After scoring a combined 12 runs yesterday odds makers have set the total for this game between Tampa Bay and New York a bit lower with two decent right-handers on the mound. The Yankees are still in the hunt for a wild-card spot so every game is important to them and in this series with Tampa Bay we have seen two decently high-scoring games. Will we see a third one in a row?

MLB Odds
Odds makers have come out setting the total for this game at 8.5 across the board but with a little bit of better value on backing the under. For my MLB pick I like the value on taking the under the 8.5 like at Bookmaker +100. Despite the first two games of the series scoring quite a few runs I don't believe today will mimic those contests.


Tampa Bay Rays
Jake Odorizzi comes in with a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 whip having allowed zero earned runs versus the Yankees two weeks ago. At home he has been fantastic the season but his numbers are not that great on the road with a 4.33 ERA and batters hitting .269 against him. However, in his last two road starts he has been decent allowing two combined earned runs in just over 13 innings of work versus Oakland and Toronto. On top of that in his other road start just prior to those two he actually pitched well allowing  four earned runs in Boston, the best hitting team in baseball. He has not had a lot of success pitching in Yankee Stadium but Odorizzi can be really tough at times and in his last five starts overall he has been excellent allowing just a combined four earned runs which bookended three straight games where he allowed zero earned runs. At the plate Tampa Bay has been less than stellar this season to say the least and although they had a few breakouts offensively over their last 10 games they still rank among one of the worst teams statistically in major league baseball. There is really not a lot to like about their offense as they rank 25th in runs per game, and 29th in both batting average and hits per game.


New York Yankees
"Luis Severino gets the start for New York and comes in this season with a 6.42 ERA and 1.47 whip having recently been called back up to the big leagues from AAA. He has definitely struggled this season but the future still looks decently bright for him as he has some good stuff and he is still really young at just 22 years old. In his first game back starting on the mound he pitched really well against the Mets allowing zero earned runs over just four innings off of just one hit. Things did not go as well for him in his next start at Boston allowing five earned runs off of seven hits in the same timeframe, however this is a really good spot for him to come in and pitch well against a Tampa Bay team in which he threw two shutout innings in a relief appearance only two weeks ago. In his opportunities against the Rays in his career he has allowed just two total earned runs in 12 innings, although it should be noted he did allow 13 hits in that stretch. Still, overall since being called back up on July 27 he has been for the most part more than sufficient so I believe this is a good spot for him to come in and pitch well at home. Offensively New York has knocked the ball around the last couple of games but for the most part they can struggle at times at the plate as they rank 22nd in runs per game, and 27th in OPS overall.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker +100

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