Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
World Series Game 2
Wednesday, October 21, 2020 – 8:15 pm EST at Globe Life Field
- Rays: Blake Snell (4-2 3.24 ERA; Postseason: 2-2 3.20 ERA)
- Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (2-2 2.31 ERA; Postseason: 0-1 9.95 ERA)
It’s the second game of the World Series and the Dodgers are already going to a potential bullpen game.
After winning the first game of the series behind Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers elected to start Tony Gonsolin, who has only pitched 6.1 innings in the postseason. Both appearances came against the Braves where he allowed seven runs on five hits and six walks with two home runs and eight strikeouts.
Gonsolin was fantastic throughout the regular season. He had a 2-2 record but an ERA of 2.31 and rarely walked batters. He walked just 1.35 batters per nine innings and allowed just .39 home runs per nine innings.
In the postseason, it has all changed. Gonsolin is walking a batter per inning and allowing more than a run per inning.
When Gonsolin started games, he was much better compared to when he relieved games. In starts, he allowed an average of .179 but in relief, he allowed a .286 average with an on base percentage of .318.
Again, that hasn’t been the case in the postseason, but it’s a small sample size and a new team. But the Dodgers can hit just as well as the Braves can, which means it won’t be very easy for Gonsolin.
Blake Snell will get his first start in the World Series for the Rays. Snell hasn’t finished six innings in the regular season or postseason, but he’s still an ace of the Rays.
He’s thrown 19.2 innings and allowed 16 hits, seven runs, 10 walks, and four home runs. Snell has also struck out 19 batters in those 19.2 innings in the postseason.
Snell allowed 1.8 home runs during the regular season per nine innings. In the postseason, Snell has allowed four home runs, which isn’t as bad as some of his teammates, like Glasnow. Still, the Dodgers have so much power and can absolutely hit the left-hander.
Snell’s strikeouts have been low this postseason. In the last three games and 14 innings combined, he’s struck out just 10 batters. In the regular season, Snell struck out 11.34 batters per nine innings.
Snell has always been dominant when facing a lineup in the first go-around. When it comes to the second and third time around the order, Snell begins to struggle. In the regular season, for example, Snell allowed 10 home runs. Seven of those 10 came the second time around the order.
Only Mookie Betts has faced Snell more than one time in his career. Betts is batting .304 with one home run, three walks, two doubles, and four singles. But what really stands out is that Betts has just two strikeouts in 27 plate appearances, going up against a high strikeout thrower in Snell.
Postseason baseball is tough. We have no idea how long Gonsolin goes. He likely pitches until he starts allowing runs. Then who comes in? Julio Urias or Dustin May? Or a bunch of bullpen guys?
There’s no way Gonsolin pitches through five innings in this start. But Dustin May and Julio Urias are legitimate options to hold it down for the Dodgers early in this game if Gonsolin is in trouble.
In the ALCS, Randy Arozarena was the only batter to hit over .300 with 18 or more at bats. The Rays offense hasn’t been great. The pitching has worked magic along with their fielding.
Therefore, I see no reason to look at the Rays match-up against the Dodgers. There’s way too much uncertainty there.
However, Mookie Betts has his total bases set at 1.5 at plus money in MLB odds. These MLB oddsmakers usually put players at .5 with heavy juice but instead, if Betts gets two hits or one extra base hit, this bet is a winner.
Remember, total bases does not include walks. But the best thing about Betts and his total bases is that he leads off in the lineup. You’re going to get extra at bats from Betts to get that total.
Both teams will likely find their offense as well. The Dodgers' lefties should have some power against the lefty. You can still find this Dodgers offense at over 3.5 runs for -145. How do the sportsbooks still let this happen after putting up eight in the first game in a Tyler Glasnow start?
MLB Pick: Mookie Betts to Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)