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Starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow #20 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 28, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio.
Starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow #20 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 28, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images via AFP.

The Rays have locked up their spot in the postseason, now it’s a matter of determining where they fall in the AL Wild Card to determine their opponent. They face a Red Sox team that's been eliminated from playoff contention and have just lost three straight in Toronto.

In the first of a three-game series, Boston Red Sox veteran Rich Hill will take the mound versus Tyler Glasnow, as Glasnow makes his second start of the year. 

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Monday night’s game between the Rays and Red Sox (odds via FanDuel SportsbookBetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).

Rays vs. Red Sox Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, Oct. 3, 7:10 p.m. ET
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Weather: 53 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 16-mph wind

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds Analysis 

The Rays are the Moneyline favorites at all sportsbooks, ranging from –140 at DraftKings to -145 at BetMGM.

The total is set at 7.5 at all major sportsbooks, with 96% of cash coming in the favor of the Red Sox, but 81% of tickets have come in on the Rays.

Rays vs. Red Sox Projected Pitchers

Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs. Rich Hill (8-7, 4.41 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)

Tyler Glasnow will be making just his second start of the season as the Rays prepare for another hopeful postseason run. Glasnow made his season debut on September 28 versus the Cleveland Guardians. While he was on a short leash in terms of pitch count, he pitched three strong innings allowing just two hits and one earned run. Glasnow was fantastic for the Rays in 2021. In 14 starts, he recorded a 2.66 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 88 innings. Hitters slashed an average of .176 versus the right-hander. Though he likely won’t pitch very deep into this game either, in order to preserve his health for the playoffs, Glasnow looked solid in his debut and is well-rested.  

Veteran Rich Hill has been very hot or cold this season, but in his last seven games he’s 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 35.2 innings pitched. In three starts against the Rays this year, Hill’s 1-0 with a 4.65 ERA. He recorded a season high 11 strikeouts versus Tampa Bay on August 27 at home. Hill’s coming off a win versus the Orioles at home, with nine strikeouts over six innings.

Rays vs. Red Sox ML Pick

Rays (-140 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Even with Glasnow still finding his footing and likely not pitching beyond four or five innings maximum, he looked good in his first start and is backed by a well-rested and strong bullpen. The Rays’ bullpen ranks sixth in the league with a 3.29 ERA. 

On the flip side, you never know what you’re going to get from a Hill start. He’s been solid recently, but as is seen in his three starts against the Rays this year, he either struggles to record three strikeouts, or he steamrolls on through with more than eight. The fact of the matter is, he’s inconsistent and doesn’t have a reliable bullpen to back him up. The Red Sox’s bullpen is one of the worst in the league. They’re 26th in MLB with a 4.65 ERA and in the second half of the season, they have sole possession of the worst in the league with an abysmal 5.76 ERA. It’ll be easy for this Rays lineup to capitalize on the Red Sox, even if it doesn’t come against Hill. 

Additionally, aside from the Orioles, Boston has played horribly against AL East opponents. They’re 13-41 this season against Tampa Bay, New York, and Toronto. With their season all but officially over, this could be a tough three-game stint to end the year for the Red Sox.

Rays vs. Red Sox O/U Pick

Over 7.5 (+110 via FanDuel) ★★★

Even with the Red Sox’s offensive struggles this season, and Tampa’s success very much reliant more so on pitching than hitting, Boston's pitching situation is too volatile to not take the over. 

In the Red Sox’s last seven losses, the over has hit six times. After being swept by Toronto in their last three-game series, in two of those three losses the Red Sox were shut out and the Blue Jays hit the over by themselves. There have been multiple occasions this season where Boston has lost by an overwhelmingly large margin to hit the over.

Rays vs. Red Sox Prop Pick

Rich Hill Over 3.5 strikeouts (-165 via BetMGM) ★★

With all that being said, this could be another high-volume strikeout game for Rich Hill. His numbers have been up and down against the Rays in his three starts this year. 

In his first contest versus them he struck out just one. In his second, he had arguably his best game of the year with 11 strikeouts. Then most recently on September 6, he struck out just three. Going off this up and down pattern, I believe Hill will hit the over on 3.5.

Where to Bet on Rays-Red Sox Picks

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Rays-Red Sox picks from 10/3/2022 at 1:42 p.m. ET.