Rays Loosing Streak to End in the Bronx: Play Tampa Bay +159 & Go 'Over'

Darin Zank

Saturday, July 4, 2015 12:32 PM GMT

The Yankees used some late fireworks to take a series opener from the Rays Friday night. Do we bet the Pinstripes to add to Tampa's misery today?

Rays-Yanks Saturday Betting Odds
In the very early betting action the best line we could find on New York and Michael Pineda was the -162 offered at BetOnline, while Tampa and Nathan Karns were getting +159 at 5Dimes. And most of the market was listing the total on today's game at 7.5 runs.

 

The Situation
New York began this series in dramatic fashion Friday night, winning 7-5 on Brian McCann's three-run homer in the bottom of the 12th inning. So the Yanks have won two games in a row, following a three-game losing streak, while Tampa now owns a six-game losing slide.

Big-picture, at 43-37 the Yanks lead the AL East by a game over Baltimore, and by two games over 42-40 Tampa. The Rays are also still only one game off the pace in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

New York leads this season series seven games to four, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 6-5 margin.

 

Saturday's Starters
Pineda (8-5, 4.08) is eight-for-15 on quality starts this season, bouncing from good to bad over the last month or so. Three starts ago he held Miami to one run through 6 2/3 innings; next time out he got bombed by Philly for eight runs in less than four innings; but last time out he limited Houston to two earned runs through eight frames. For the season Pineda has allowed more hits, 103, than innings pitched, 93, but his K/BB ratio is excellent, at 95/12; New York is 9-6 in Pineda's starts, with the OVERS going 9-4.

Pineda has started twice this season against Tampa Bay, allowing five runs and 13 hits through 11 1/3 innings; the Yanks split those two games.

Karns (4-4, 3.26) is only six-for-16 on quality starts this year, but three for his last four. Last Tuesday he held Cleveland to two runs through six innings, and over his last four starts he's allowed just four runs through 22 1/3 innings. On the season Karns has allowed fewer hits, 79, than innings pitched, 91, walked 36, which is perhaps a few too many, but struck out 84; Tampa is 7-9 in Karns' starts, with the totals splitting 8-8.

Karns has already started three times against the Yankees this year, giving up five runs and 12 hits through 14 2/3 innings; the Rays lost two of those games, and two of those games played UNDER.

 

Saturday's Batting Splits
New York ranks eighth in the Majors right now with a .323 team on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, while Tampa ranks 25th against righties with a .299 OBP.

 

Betting Trends
Tampa has played six OVERS in a row, mainly because Rays pitching has allowed at least five runs in each of those games.

 

Stadium Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are a lopsided 22-11 on the OVERS, averaging 10.5 runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks.

 

Injury Update
New York was already playing without OF Jacoby Ellsbury, and now just placed OF Carlos Beltran on the DL due to an oblique strain.

 

Free MLB Picks
We don't usually go for teams slogging around with six-game losing streaks but the value on today's line resides with the Rays. Also, Yankee Stadium seems conducive to OVERS this season, and we'll bet that trend to continue.

MLB Picks: Tampa +159 and OVER 7.5 runs (-110) at 5Dimes