Rays vs. Guardians MLB Picks, Predictions: Battle of Two Shanes in Game 1
As the least of the division winners in the American League, the Cleveland Guardians have to get past the Tampa Bay Rays in order to reach the ALDS. Read on for our Rays-Guardians MLB picks for Game 1.
The Shanes take center stage in Friday’s AL Wild Card Series opener between the Rays and Guardians. Will Bieber or McClanahan gain the upper-hand in propelling his team toward an ALDS berth?
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s Wild Card Series Game 1 between the Rays and Guardians (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Rays vs. Guardians Game Info
Date: Friday, Oct. 7, 12:07 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Weather: 54 degrees, 16% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds
Rays vs. Guardians Odds
Rays vs. Guardians Odds Analysis
Cleveland opened as a -127 favorite over Tampa Bay. We’ve seen the numbers crunch slightly toward the Rays, with the Guardians now just -116 via FanDuel and -120 via DraftKings. Sixty-eight percent of the money has gone toward the host Guardians.
The total opened at 6.5 and has remained there with increased juice to the Under at DraftKings (-130) but has dropped to 6 at FanDuel with -115 odds to the Over. The Under has seen 66% of the handle as of Thursday afternoon.
Rays vs. Guardians Projected Pitchers
Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs. Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.54 ERA, 0.926 WHIP)
Bieber allowed seven runs over 4 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees in the only postseason start of his career in 2020. However, he enters the 2022 playoffs hot after pitching to a 2.44 ERA across seven starts since September 1.
McClanahan has had rocky efforts when used in past postseasons as a reliever, but his only career playoff start was a good one: 5 scoreless innings against the Boston Red Sox in last year’s ALDS.
Rays vs. Guardians Picks
Rays vs. Guardians ML Pick
Guardians (-116)
At least on paper, Cleveland’s .646 OPS against lefties this season (28th in MLB) should mean a juicy matchup advantage for McClanahan. But the one time the Tampa lefty faced the Guardians this season, he allowed five earned runs and failed to complete the fifth inning.
In two games against the Rays this season, Bieber allowed five runs across 13 innings. For the most part, it’s been a rough go offensively for the Rays of late. Tampa Bay’s OPS over the past 30 days is .652 (27th in MLB).
Even if Cleveland doesn’t erupt offensively, the light-hitting Rays limp into the playoffs at 2-8 across their last 10 games, and they aren’t a good enough road team (35-46) to overcome their recent lackluster efforts.
Rays vs. Guardians O/U Pick
Under 6.5 (-125)
As covered above, the Rays have been hapless at the plate for the better part of a month. Cleveland ranks eighth in baseball in OPS over that same stretch, but the Guardians have not been successful against lefty starters over a larger sample this season.
Though injuries have plagued McClanahan this year, he’s elite when healthy. In two road starts against playoff opponents (Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros) since his return from the injured list, the Rays lefty went 10 innings and allowed just two runs.
Offense could be hard to come by for this early start time with two ace pitchers. Once the starters are pulled from the game, the Rays and Guardians both rank inside MLB's top 10 in bullpen ERA this season.
Rays vs. Guardians Prop Pick
McClanahan Under 4.5 strikeouts (+118)
With 194 strikeouts in 166 1/3 innings pitched this season, McClanahan is an elite strikeout guy. But his recent numbers and the trends of the Cleveland lineup give me pause on his ability to rack up the Ks on Friday.
McClanahan has not gone deeper than 5 innings in any of his four starts since coming off the IL. He struck out five batters in his first game back on September 15, but hasn’t cleared this K total since. The Guardians have by far the lowest per-game strikeout rate in baseball this season at 6.93 Ks per game. Plus, the Rays notoriously pull their pitchers early in meaningful games in order to exploit the best matchups with their talented bullpen.
With a tasty plus-money price at FanDuel, I love the value on the Under for McClanahan's strikeouts on Friday.
Where to Bet on Rays-Guardians Picks
Rays-Guardians picks from 10/6/2022 at 3:32 p.m. ET.
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