Rays Great Underdog Value at Injury-Riddled Indians on May 16

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, May 16, 2017 1:17 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 16, 2017 1:17 PM UTC

The Rays and Indians meet for the second of a three-game series at Prgressive Field on Tuesday (6:10 p.m. ET). Cleveland is running away with the matchup of late, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings.

Tampa Bay Rays (19-22)

Tampa is 2-8 SU in its last 10 as a road underdog vs. the AL Central following Monday night’s 8-7 series-opening loss at Cleveland. Pitching has proven abysmal in this stretch. The staff has gifted six runs or more in all but one of the 10 games. Overall, the team is yielding 7.11 per contest.

Jake Odorizzi looks to turn these poor performances around Tuesday, commanding the hill for skipper Kevin Cash. Odorizzi is 2-2 with a 2.61 ERA in six outings this year. The right-hander yields a .174 batting average against, ranking in the top five among MLB starters. Lifetime, Odorizzi is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings of work vs. the Indians.

Odorizzi may hold the advantage against Indians hitters. Only four batters have five or more plate appearances. Clean-up hitter Edwin Encarnacion, who came over form the Blue Jays in a big-dollar offseason deal, is just 4-for-27 with a .530 OPS in his career. Don’t look for a break tonight. The slugger is mired in a 0-for-17 slump.

The Rays are 9-17 SU all-time as a road underdog behind Odorizzi, losing roughly 20 percent profit to backers. When up against opposition with a higher ERA to date, the record improves to 7-8 with a two percent return.


Cleveland Indians (20-17)

Manager Terry Francona is battling a long injury list in Cleveland. Right-hander Carlos Carrasco’s start in Monday night’s win was cut short due to pectoral muscle tightness, while outfielder Abraham Almonte left the game with a right bicep strain. Will it matter? The Indians have dominated the Rays recently, winning 11 of the last 12 matchups since June 2015. Cleveland pitchers are holding Tampa to 2.2 runs per contest in this span.

Danny Salazar hopes to tap into the above-mentioned pitching dominance, despite a rocky beginning to 2017. The hard-throwing righty is 2-3 with a 5.20 ERA in seven starts. Salazar has walked and allowed two earned runs or more in all but one outing. He was crushed in his last outing at Toronto, allowing five runs on five hits in 2.2 frames.

The Rays could be the opponent Salazar needs to gain some confidence. He’s won each of his two career outings, allowing just one earned through 13.2 frames. The current Rays roster is hitting .114 (4-for-35) against collectively.

The Indians are 26-11 SU all-time when home favorites behind Salazar, returning 14 percent profit at -166 average odds. The team has won its last eight in a row (13-3 overall) in this spot when Salazar comes off a road defeat. 

The 'under' is 24-12-1 In Cleveland’s contests this season, though just 8-7 as home chalk.


Final Analysis

Odorizzi is peaking. Plus-money against a injury-riddled Indians lineup and a struggling starting pitcher is too good to pass up.

Free MLB Pick: Rays +150Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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