Texas got this series to even with a one-run victory Wednesday; how are we betting Thursday's rubber match so we can profit with our MLB Picks? Join us and find out!
Rangers vs. Red Sox Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
Game 3 Betting Odds
Most MLB betting odds we consulted opened Boston and Clay Buchholz at around -165 over Texas with Wandy Rodriguez, the total offered at 8.5. In the early betting many shops then dropped the price on the Sox to around -155.
Game 2 Recap
Texas combined a quality start from a guy named Phil Klein, a homer from Robinson Chirinos and some high-wire work from its bullpen for a 2-1 victory. The Rangers won as +150 betting underdogs, and the game played UNDER a total of nine runs.
Klein, making his first ML start, after 23 relief appearances, allowed just one run and five hits through 5 1/3 innings. The Texas bullpen then carded the last 11 outs – not without some drama - to secure the victory.
Sox starter Joe Kelly came up with his second good outing in a row, giving up just two runs through seven innings. He just got no help from his friends with the sticks. Boston left 12 runners on base Wednesday night, including six in scoring position, and has now scored a total of just 16 runs over its last eight games.
Sox 3B Pablo Sandoval sat out Wednesday's game with a sore knee, and his status for Thursday is uncertain.
Buchholz is four-for-eight on quality starts this season, and is coming off his best outing so far, after holding Seattle to one run and three hits, with zero walks and 11 strikeouts, through eight innings last Friday. And just prior to that he limited Toronto to three runs through 6 1/3 innings. On the season Buchholz has allowed 25 ER and 50 hits through 45 2/3 innings, with 13 walks and 54 strikeouts; Boston is just 2-6 in Buchholz' starts, in part because of some poor run support, with the totals going 3-4.
Last year Buchholz started once against the Rangers, and got nicked for six runs in less than five innings of an 8-0 Boston loss.
Rodriguez is two-for-five on quality starts this season. He had two QS in a row, but last Friday got nicked for five runs and eight hits in less than five innings of an 8-3 loss to Cleveland. On the season Wandy has allowed 12 runs and 23 hits through 28 innings, with 11 walks and 24 strikeouts; Texas is 2-3 in Rodriguez' starts, with the totals leaning UNDER 4-1.
This will be Rodriguez' first-ever start against Boston, although several Sox hitters have faced him previously, when he was pitching in the National League.
Thursday's Batting Splits
Texas ranks 26th in the Majors this season with a .656 team OPS against right-handed pitching.
Boston, meanwhile, ranks 26th in the Majors against lefties with a .631 OPS.
Game 3 Free Picks
Buchholz is coming off a solid outing, but he's also been a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde this season. And while Rodriguez is coming off a rough outing, he could be in line for a bounce-back effort. We believe the value on today's betting line resides with the Rangers. Also, seeing as Texas struggles with the sticks against righties, and the Sox struggle against lefties, we're thinking UNDER for our MLB picks.
Rangers vs. Red Sox Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Game 2 Betting Odds
In the early betting MLB betting odds were chalking Boston and Joe Kelly at around -170 over Texas with Phil Klein, with a total of 8.5 runs.
Game 1 Recap
Boston got a quality start from Wade Miley and dingers from two of its big boys on its way to a 4-3 victory Tuesday night. The Sox won as -160 favorites on Tuesday's MLB betting board, and the game stayed UNDER its total of nine runs.
Boston is now 14-3-1 on the UNDERS over its last 18 games.
Mike Napoli, slumping as of late, bumped Boston's lead from 1-0 to 2-0 with a solo homer in the fourth inning Tuesday, and Big Papi added a solo shot in the fifth. Texas then scored twice in the sixth, and got within a run when Leonys Martin led off the ninth with a homer against Sox closer Koji Uehara. But that's where it ended.
Boston 3B Pablo Sandoval was hit on the knee with a pitch last night, and Hanley Ramirez jammed a leg on a slide. Bettors might want to check later in the day to see if these two are in the lineup.
Kelly is just two-for-seven on quality starts this season, although he is coming off one of those quality outings, after holding Seattle to one run through 6 1/3 innings last Thursday. However, prior to that Kelly had allowed at least five runs four starts in a row. On the season Kelly has allowed 25 runs and 36 hits through 40 1/3 innings, with 18 walks and 36 strikeouts; Boston is 4-3 in Kelly's starts, with the totals going 4-3.
Kelly has never started against Texas.
Klein, a big righty who was taken in the 30th round of the 2011 draft, is being called up from the Minors to make his first career ML start, after 23 relief appearances. He posted a 2.84 ERA in 19 innings last year with Texas, and allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings this season for the Rangers, before being sent down.
In five seasons of Minor League ball Klein has been great, going 17-3 with a 1.86 ERA. Pitching almost exclusively in relief Klein allowed just 138 hits through 218 innings, with 269 strikeouts.
Klein has never faced Boston.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
Boston ranks 17th in the Majors against right-handed pitching with a .702 team OPS, while Texas ranks 27th against righties with a .657 OPS.
Game 2 Free Picks
Texas may be giving a kid his first-ever ML start, but based on what Kelly has done so far this season, and on today's line, we believe the betting value resides with the Rangers, so add them to your MLB picks tonight. Also, as both teams rank in the bottom half of the Majors against RHP, we're thinking UNDER.
MLB Picks: Texas +153 at WagerWeb and UNDER 8.5 runs (+105) at Heritage
Rangers vs. Red Sox Series Opener
By: Ron Patrick
Rangers-Red Sox Game 1 Betting Odds
Most of Tuesday's MLB betting odds opened Boston and Wade Miley at around -140 over Texas with Yovani Gallardo, with a total of nine runs. Many books then dropped that price as much as 10 and 15 cents in the early betting, and the total to 8.5.
Also, Bovada was listing the Sox at a heavy -220 to win this series, while BetOnline was offering Texas at +190.
Boston just completed a 5-5 road trip by splitting four games in Seattle, winning last Thursday 2-1, losing Friday 2-1, winning Saturday 4-2 but losing Sunday 5-0. All four of those games played UNDER the totals.
Just before that the Sox took two of three games at Oakland, while they lost two of three at Toronto. Going back a bit Boston is 1-3-1 in its last five series.
The Red Sox are also 13-3-1 on the UNDERS over their last 17 games, because while the pitching has been decent, Sox bats have been cold.
Texas just lost two of three games at home to Cleveland over the weekend, losing Friday 8-3 and Saturday 10-8 but avoiding the sweep with a 5-1 victory Sunday. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz blew a save Saturday, the second time in his last three appearances he's given up runs. So Texas is a bit concerned about the back end of its bullpen at the moment.
The Rangers are 1-1-2 over their last four series, 8-6 over their last 14 games. They're also 8-3-1 on the OVERS over their last 12 games, mainly because Texas pitching has been a bit iffy.
Big-picture, at 18-20 Boston is three games behind Minnesota in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot, while the Rangers, at 16-22, trail the Twins by five games.
This is the first meeting between these teams this season; last year Boston took four of six games from Texas, with the totals going 2-3-1.
Lefty Miley is just two-for-seven on quality starts for his new team this season, but two for his last three. Last Wednesday he tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings against Oakland, and over his last three starts he's allowed seven runs through 19 2/3 innings. For the season Miley has allowed 22 ER and 37 hits through 35 1/3 innings, with a very mediocre K/BB ratio of 22/16; Boston is 3-4 in Miley's starts, with the totals going 3-4.
Miley's only career start against Texas came back in 2012, when he was with Arizona.
Gallardo is only two-for-eight on quality starts this season, although he's coming off one of his better outings so far, last Wednesday, when he held Kansas City to two runs through seven innings. Over his last three starts he's allowed eight ER through 19 innings, and on the season Gallardo has allowed 20 ER and 45 hits through 45 2/3 innings, with 15 walks and 32 strikeouts; Texas is 3-5 in Gallardo's starts, with the totals going 3-4.
Last year, pitching for Milwaukee, Gallardo started once against Boston, throwing 6 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in a 4-0 Brewers win.
The Texas bullpen, which has been lousy as of late, ranks 27th in the Majors in ERA at 4.68, with six saves and eight blown saves. The Boston pen, meanwhile, ranks 17th in ERA at 3.71, with nine saves and six blown saves.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
Texas ranks fourth in the Majors with a .784 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Boston ranks 20th with a .690 OPS against righties this season.
Games played at Fenway Park this season are 7-9 on the totals, even as they've averaged 9.2 runs per.
Texas is six games under .500 overall, but 10-9 on the road.
Boston is just 7-9 at home this season.
Game 1 Free Pick
The pitching match-up looks about a wash, and while Boston owns the edge in the bullpens, Texas owns the edge with the sticks. So we believe the value on tonight's dime line resides with the Rangers. Also, considering the Sox recent struggles at the plate we're thinking UNDER for our MLB picks.
Free MLB Picks: Texas +118 at Heritage and UNDER 8.5 runs at WagerWeb