Our MLB betting expert is being taken on a little Labor Day trip. Let's hope it is worth missing this MLB action as he's identified some strong plays in Rangers & LA Angels series in Anaheim.
Looks like yours truly gets to bug out for a weekend of wine tasting in the wonderful Walla Walla Valley, but that won’t stop me from giving you the MLB picks on this weekend’s action in Anaheim. This is an important series for Anaheim’s chances of making the playoffs, and for Texas to further secure their position, so both teams will be motivated to play their best.
Saturday Night: Derek Holland (TEX) vs. Jered Weaver (LAA)
The game already features heavy public action on the side of Texas, as early consensus is 100% on the Rangers money line at +103 at 5Dimes. The main reason of this must be Jered Weaver’s recent performances, as he has given up 14 runs over his last two games and 11.2 innings of work. Weaver is also 3-6 in his last ten games, another reason for the obvious public action. But are we smarter than the Average Joe? For my sake let’s just say that we are. Weaver is exhibiting an extreme home and away split this year, and this game is at home. Weaver is a putrid 3-8 on the road while posting a 6.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 27/15 K/BB rate, and .266 BAA. At home, Weaver is practically a good pitcher and has accrued a 3.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 40/7 K/BB rate, and .275 BAA. Kind of odd that the batting average against for Weaver is higher at home and all of the other metrics are fantastic. The walk rate is especially great so he must be seeing home plate better at home. This is the first meeting for Weaver against Texas this year and I expect him to be on point.
The MLB Pick: Take the Angels at -104 on the money line at Pinnacle and smirk at your friends when you called a good performance by Weaver in this game.
Sunday Afternoon: Colby Lewis (TEX) vs. Hector Santiago (LAA)
At press time the line on this game wasn’t out yet, but I would be surprised if Texas wasn’t favored – to trap the public into taking the other side. Projected starter Colby Lewis has pitched great in Anaheim so far this year, but many folks will gravitate to the game on July 5th where he gave up 10 earned runs over 4 innings to the Angels in Arlington. In the meantime, projected Angels starter Hector Santiago has gone sideways over his last eight starts, going 0-5 while walking the world. But even with these poor performances, Santiago is still posting a 3.37 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 142/54 K/BB rate, and .229 BAA over 152.1 innings this year. This is the most innings pitched for Santiago in his career, and he may be hitting a wall. Santiago’s career ERA consistently increases as the season goes on, so much so that he has posted an unscrupulous ERA of 6.21 in his career in August. Another way to look at it is Santiago’s pre-All Star ERA of 2.33 and post-All Star ERA of 5.93. Something is not right with how Mr. Santiago goes about his season, and he is about to fade hard. You should fade him too.
The MLB Pick: Take the Rangers on the money line and also consider taking the Over as Santiago could get lit up in this game. Maybe parlay both of these plays if the O/U total is posted at 8 runs or under.