Rangers vs. Astros MLB Picks: In-State Rivals Battle It Out

The Houston Astros will look to make it two in a row against their in-state rivals the Texas Rangers. We offer up our top picks for this Rangers-Astros matchup.

The Texas Rangers were finally halted by the left arm of Framber Valdez on Thursday. But prior to that, they were on an absolute heater. Texas had scored at least six runs in every one of their four consecutive wins and will look to reignite the fire on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros continues to go about its business as one of the best teams in baseball. Even with just three wins in its last six they still stand atop the American League West at 25-14. Now, the Astros will send Cristian Javier to the hill to confirm at least a split against Texas.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s game between the Rangers and Astros (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Rangers vs. Astros Game Info

Date: Friday, May 20, 8:10 p.m. ETTV: Apple TV+Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TXWeather: Dome

Rangers vs. Astros Odds

Rangers vs. Astros Odds Analysis

The Astros opened up at -173 here, and it would seem they’re the only team that is being bet on. A whopping 72% of run line tickets here are on the Astros with 93% of the handle. There’s a similar split on the Moneyline with 90% of tickets and 93% of the handle. With all that, Houston has moved out to -175 and even -180, though you can head to DraftKings to find a cool -170 on the Astros ML.

The Over has been hit hard here, with the number creeping up from the open of eight runs to 8.5.

Rangers vs. Astros Projected Pitchers

Martin Perez (2-2, 2.01 ERA) vs. Cristian Javier (2-1, 3.20 ERA)

Perez has been one of the surprises of the season to this point. The veteran lefty, who had never been able to find success at the major-league level, has started 2022 with a 2.01 ERA and a 2.50 expected ERA in seven starts.

Javier is one of the most exciting young arms in the game, but the Astros have not really made up their minds as to how to use him. He’s started just three games, and two of those didn’t go all that well giving up a combined 12 hits and nine runs in those two. As a reliever, he has not allowed a run all year.

Rangers vs. Astros Picks

Run line: Astros -1.5 (+115 via DraftKings) ???Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110 via PointsBet) ???Prop bet: Cristian Javier over 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via DraftKings) ????

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Rangers vs. Astros RL Pick

Astros -1.5 (+115)

Houston is simply the class of the league when it comes to offense, at least of late. For the season, the Astros are third in wRC+ behind just the Yankees and Angels, but over the last two weeks, the fight isn’t really close at all. Houston owns a 145 wRC+ to lead baseball in the last 14 days, well ahead of the Giants (135 wRC+) and the Dodgers (130 wRC+) for first place.

It would seem to make sense given the contact we’ve seen from this team. The Astros sit sixth in hard-hit rate and fourth in hard-hit balls per swing, carrying a .350 xwOBA into this one which places fourth as well. While Perez has been great this season, hard-hit balls have always been an issue for him, and even this season his 36.3% mark ranks worse than the league average of 35.6%. Considering how hot Houston is on offense, I’d have to say it should have no issues hanging numbers on the board.

On the other side of things, while the Rangers have gotten it done at the plate this year they should be up against it on Friday with Javier pitching. His expected batting average of .206 ranks in the top 11% of the league and his strikeout rate is a beefy 29.1%. The Rangers rank fourth in strikeout rate over the last two weeks and have certainly not been disciplined in that department.

Rangers vs. Astros O/U Pick

Over 8.5 (-110)

I’m a fan of the Astros’ offense here against Perez and would have to say the Over is the play if you want to bet on the total. While I believe Javier is an excellent pitcher, it’s hard to deny he’s had issues as a starter this season. It’s also a fact that the Rangers have been on a tear at the plate as of recently.

The Under has cashed just twice in the Rangers’ last 10 games due to a combination of great hitting and terrible pitching. They’ve allowed at least four runs in their last four games and in six of their last seven. With Perez toeing the slab against arguably the best offense in baseball, it doesn’t appear things will get any easier. Texas has had its issues at the plate in the last couple of weeks, but it’s also had some excellent nights due to the lethal nature of some of its biggest bats.

The Rangers can easily pop a few homers here and help us cash the Over.

Rangers vs. Astros Prop Bet

Javier over 5.5 strikeouts (+125)

You can call me a sucker for this one if you’d like, but the fact of the matter is that Javier is a high-strikeout arm going up against a high-strikeout offense. The Rangers have struck out in a ridiculous 25.7% of plate appearances in the last two weeks and even helped a pitch-to-contact sinkerballer in Valdez cash his strikeout prop on Wednesday.

Javier should be no different. He’s yet to reach six strikeouts in a start this year, but he did hit five in his last two outings which didn’t even last four innings. As a guy who strikes out nearly 30% of the hitters he faces, he’s going to need to face roughly 20 batters to get this done. He should have no issues there.

Where to Bet on Rangers-Astros Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Rangers-Astros picks made on 5/20/2022 at 2:09 p.m. ET.