After a low scoring game yesterday, this capper has checked the betting boards for tonights games and suggests backing over the total today between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.
A few times this season when I have seen a total line that does not make sense I will go opposite and call that my opposite play of the day. So although this particular game would fit that mold I'm not going to apply that strategy.
The MLB betting market have come out with a total of 8 for this matchup and it actually does make a little bit of sense. The Astros have been slumping recently and simply have not been scoring a lot of runs. Still, with two subpar pitchers on the mound and two pretty decent offenses I like this game to go quite a bit over the total. At some books the number is at 7.5 with higher juice, but for me I'm going to back over the total of 8 at -105 in which you can find at Bovada sports book.
Colby Lewis gets the start for the Texas Rangers, and the nine-year veteran comes in with a 4.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. With that surprisingly high ERA he is still 8-4 on the season. Career wise he has an ERA even worse at 4.83 with a 1.38 WHIP, and he is not been particularly solid his last few games before the break. In his last three games before the All-Star break he allowed 16 runs in 17 innings highlighted by 10 earned runs in a game at home against the Los Angeles Angels. He is not the type of pitcher that is going to shut the door on a good hitting team like the Astros that desperately are looking to bounce back after crawling into the break. For the Astros Scott Feldman will take the mound with a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He comes in pitching a little bit better than Lewis, in his last three games he has allowed eight earned runs in 18 innings. Still, he does not have the kind of stuff to be lights out against any team in particular, and he is coming off the DL which has not bode well for pitchers this season. Look for the Rangers to have a lot of quality at-bats against him.
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At the Plate
Although the Astros come into this game in a bit of a slump they still have been solid on the offensive end this season. Houston ranks eighth in the league in runs scored per game and Texas is not too far behind ranked 14th. In OPS Houston ranks 10th and Texas ranks 13th, and in home runs Houston ranks first in the major leagues in per game average with Texas ranking ninth. Across the board both these teams provide a lot of power at the plate, but batting average wise they both rank in the bottom part of the league.
Lewis and Feldman have 19 years of major league experience between them. Their career numbers are okay at best and I think both the Rangers and the Astros should have a lot of good swings at the plate. This game could get ugly really early in Houston and I'm looking for more like a 8-6 type of finish.
MLB Pick: Over 8 -105 at Bovada