Put These Low-Scoring Games To Work & Cash In On Two Totals Picks

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, April 21, 2016 2:50 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 21, 2016 2:50 PM UTC

Ready for some totals picks for tonight? Our MLB betting analyst shares his top two O/Us in Cubs vs. Reds and Athletics vs. Yankees.

Chicago Cubs (Arrieta) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Finnegan) 7:10 PM ET
The 2015 National League Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta has picked up right where he left off a season ago. Arrieta is 3-0 during three team starts in 2016 with an excellent 1.23 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s made five career starts versus Cincinnati, all of those outings have occurred since 2014, and he compiled an excellent 0.92 WHIP.

The Cubs pitching has been an integral part of their 11-3 start in 2016. Chicago is allowing just 2.3 runs per game thus far, and opposing hitters have a paltry .199 batting average against Cubs hurlers. As a matter of fact, they’ve allowed 2 runs or less during six of their previous seven games, and that includes each of the last four. The Cubs have seen each of their last three games stay under the total. This will be the fifth time this season they’ll be facing a southpaw starting pitcher, and they have a dismal .176 team batting average during the first four.

Cincinnati sends southpaw Brandon Finnegan to the mound today. He’s made three starts this season and has an impressive 2.04 ERA during those outings. One of those starts came at Wrigley Field, and he allowed just 2 earned runs on 1 hit during 6 2/3 innings pitched. Reds pitchers have been hammered on the road this season. However, it’s been quite the opposite at home where they’ve allowed just 3.2 runs per game, and opposition hitters have a poor .224 team batting average against them.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair, and one of my Thursday MLB picks will be indicative of that forecast. And if you'd like to bet on the moneyline for this game, check our MLB picks of the day!

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7
Best Line Offered: at YouWager


Oakland Athletics (Hill) vs. New York Yankees (Severino) 7:05 PM ET
Oakland starting pitcher Rich Hill has gone 50-22 (69.4%) under the total during his career starts, and that includes 28-11 (71.8%) in road games. He’ll certainly have plenty of security in knowing his bullpen has been terrific this season. Oakland’s relief pitchers have a cumulative 2.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an excellent 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 2016.

Oakland has gone 11-2 under the total during their previous thirteen games, and that includes 3-0 in its last three. They’ve also stayed under the total in all five road games this season, and are 10-1 under when facing right-handed starting pitchers thus far. Oakland is averaging just 3.0 runs scored per game, and has an awful .226 team batting average so far in 2016.

The Yankees Luis Severino has been shaky during his first two starts of 2016. Don’t count on those struggles to last very long. Severino has gone 8-4-1 under the total during thirteen career starts, and all of those outings occurred since 8/5/2015. Severino went 5-3 during eleven starts a season ago with a stellar 2.89 ERA, and held opposing batters to a meager .229 team batting average. The Yankees hurler can also be extremely confident in his bullpen staff. Yankee relievers have a combined 2.50 ERA, and have amassed an extremely impressive 57 strikeouts during just 42 1/3 innings of work.

The Yankees have gone 5-0-1 under the total in their previous six games. They’ve averaged a pathetic 2.3 runs per game and have a team batting average of just .198 during their last seven outings.

Current MLB odds at Matchbook.com provides me with a best combination of number and price for this specific MLB pick. Still not convinced? Read more about the 'Under' on this game.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

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