Monday night we split a pair of MLB Picks on some player props. However, our lone win was at -150 odds, so we lost a third of a unit in an underwhelming night. However, Thursday’s short slate still has some nice value, as do Bovada sportsbook’s player props.
I have no idea why Bovada is even offering this. If they want to give away free money tonight, that’s on them. However, with Anthony Rizzo going up against right-hander Sal Romano, it’s going to be a bloodbath with Duvall facing off against Jake Arrieta on the other side.
Sure, Arrieta hasn’t been having an outstanding all-around season, but since the middle of July, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts. Plus, the last time he faced the Reds’ lineup back on July 2, he gave up one hit through seven innings with six punch-outs.
Duvall went 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts in that one, and over his career he is hitting 1-for-11 with 7 strikeouts.
Compare that to Rizzo, who is better against lefties this season, but for his career has a consistent .374 wOBA and .231 isolated power against right-handed pitching. Even though Romano was good last time out, I could see him giving up four or five runs to this talented Cubs lineup. If that is the case, Rizzo is bound to get in on the action.
Rizzo is hitting .333 with 27 hits, 18 RBI, and 17 runs scored in 83 August at bats. That’s a run, hit or RBI once every 1.3 plate appearances, so if we can get four of those from Rizzo, I like his chances.Free MLB Pick: Rizzo (-140)Best Line Offered: at Bovada