Profit From Struggling Offenses Colliding In Interleague Matchup

Drew Martin

Tuesday, July 19, 2016 9:47 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 19, 2016 9:47 PM UTC

The Colorado Rockies host the Tampa Bay Rays for the middle game of a three-game series tonight at Coors Field. A few key metrics point to their being some value on the totals.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies   
This interleague matchup pins two starting pitchers with big upsides, against two lineups that are showing recent signs of fatigue. A few key metrics point to their being some value on the total tonight in Denver.

The Rays and Rockies last met in 2013, with the Rockies losing two of three games at Coors Field. The Rays will be trying to break a 11-game losing streak on the road, tied for the third-longest in franchise history. Tampa is 16-27 on the road this season and is in the second game of a nine game road trip in a 10 day span that will also include four games at Oakland and two in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. The Rays dropped two of three at home to Baltimore to begin play after the All-Star break. They broke an eight-game losing streak with their 5-2 win Sunday. It was just their second win in 14 games and fourth in the past 28.

The Rockies will reunite with old friend Corey Dickerson, the former Rocky from 2014-15. Dickerson, who hit an even .300 with the Rockies, has seen his average plummet to just .223 with the Rays. He is one of many struggling Rays hitters on a dismal offensive team. The Rays lineup is sporting just a .672 team OPS over the last month.

The Rays send Blake Snell to the hill tonight, the former 1st round selection out of high school raised in Seattle, Washington. He is a lefty who throws mid 90’s with a plus change up, which is a great profile to bet in the thin air - a mile above sea level. The southpaw has had some rough outings, but reports are that he has worked on his control over the extended break and if he can cut down on the walks, he should be able to navigate this Rockies lineup. The Rockies lineup has struggled against lefties all season and when you add in park adjusted metrics, they are well below average in my numbers against southpaws.

Tyler Chatwood gets the start for the home town Rockies and Chatwood look to be the beneficiary of an extend break, this being his first year after a major surgery to his throwing elbow. The 26-year-old right hander has had a terrific year since being out all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery. He did have a couple rough starts pre all-star break, but I would expect a bounce back performance after the extended rest. The former second rounder should also take advantage of one of the least productive American League lineups in the Rays.

It takes a disciplined approach to bet under 11 for MLB Odds in Coors Field and the metrics in tonight’s matchup point to a lower than advertised total. Taking into account both of these teams offensive struggles and each of the starters off extended rest my MLB pick is under tonight in Denver


Free MLB Pick: Under 11½ -105
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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