Post-Labor Day MLB Plays of the Day Show Value on Twins and Jays

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 12:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 5, 2017 12:38 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper finally lost a pick in September. That has him looking for plus odds value as he tries to make up units in the final month of the MLB season. Read on as he makes his Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day!

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Marcus Stroman is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Anyone with that batted ball profile will have a chance to limit damage and win games. Our MLB handicapper looks to get plus odds with Toronto on Tuesday.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox

Marco Estrada is toeing the rubber for Toroto today. Riding a 5.23 era and sub .500 record (7-8), Marco Estrada will be making his first start against the Red Sox this season. At first glance the ERA is a tad scary, but Estrada owns a 1.74 ERA through his last two starts and 1.59 WHIP over the last five. This is coming off of a 10-hit 6-run game  over just 5 innings against the Orioles to close out the month.

Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, a right-hander who has an extremely negative split against lefties. With rosters expanded, I’m looking for Toronto to be able to load their lineup with lefties, or switch hitters, and take advantage of this .313 BAA against that side of the plate. Rodriguez has also struggled with control over the last half of the season and is carrying a 1.48 WHIP versus a 1.15 WHIP earlier in the year. I don’t pick large dogs often, but this looks to be a prime spot. I’ll back Toronto +163 on the moneyline to pull off the upset as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML (+166) Best Line Offered at 5Dimes

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Twins vs. Rays

Bartolo Colon looks to continue his ‘golden glow’ and pitch well in the twilight of his career before its death eventually takes hold. Our MLB handicapper likes his chances against a Rays pitcher due for negative regression.

Jake Odorizzi of the Rays is a .500 pitcher on the season, but his 7-7 record could be a lot worse after looking at his 5.97 FIP this year. Odorizzi has had a huge increase in walks and home runs this year, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased from 2.59 to 4.00 and 1.39 to 2.15, respectively. He’s gotten worse as the season has worn on, and his 6.73 FIP in the second half of the season is downright nasty.

The Twins bring Bartolo Colon with them to Florida, and he has liked the new digs so far. He’s not great by any means, but what he has done is reduced his walk rate to a nice 1.64 BB/9 in the second half of the season. The ball is being put into play, and Minnesota’s defense is taking care of the rest. He hasn’t had a blowup start since joining the Twins and has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in 9 consecutive starts while also going deep into games lately. With Odorizzi being terrible and due for FIP regression, I’ll back the Twins here with plus odds on the moneyline as another Tuesday MLB selection.

MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins ML (+129) Best Line Offered at 5Dimes

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2017 MLB Record, 188-166-9, +9.28 units (1 pending)

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