Playoff Implications Makes 'Under' the MLB Pick for Twins vs. Royals

Charles Stark

Monday, September 7, 2015 1:59 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 7, 2015 1:59 PM GMT

We have solid pitching in KC Tonight, with the Royals headed for the playoffs and the Twins desperately trying to get there, here are some value picks to play with for this matchup.

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals
I'm backing under the total when the Minnesota Twins visit the Kansas City Royals. Surprisingly the Royals are on a three-game losing streak, very rare for them. Minnesota is right in the hunt for a wild-card spot so this game and this series has a lot of meaning for them. Expect less runs than odds makers anticipate.

 

MLB Odds
To me the total on this game is just a bit high and I think the odds makers are off just a touch on what the final will be in this game. MLB odds makers came out with the total for this game at eight and that is across the board at most sportsbooks at this time. The best odds right now is at Bookmaker sportsbook where you get under the total at +100.

 

Minnesota Twins
Tommy Milone takes the mound for Minnesota with a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 whip, 75 strikeouts, and a 7-4 record. On the road his ERA doesn't change very much at 3.66 and he has been pretty steady in his last 10 games. In his last five starts he is allowed just 12 earned run total, and interestingly enough in that mix he pitched one inning for a save at Baltimore a couple weeks back. When he keeps the ball down and has good control he is a very difficult guy to get a lot of runs off of and in his last 10 appearances he has only had one rough outing in Oakland where he allowed five earned runs in just a couple innings, besides that he has pitched well.

Minnesota ranks 12th in runs scored per game at 4.31, 24th in OPS at 7.02, and 25th in team batting average hitting .248. The major issue with Minnesota is always the home and away disparity for their numbers drastically change. They simply are not the same team at the plate when they travel and there average drops from .267 at home to .229 on the road, OPS from .752 to .653, and their runs per game drop to under 4.00. Today it they are facing a very good home pitcher and I don't look for a lot of offensive production from them.

 

Kansas City Royals
Yordano Ventura gets the start for Kansas City with a 4.24 ERA, 1.26 whip, 118 strikeouts, and a 10-7 record. At home he has a solid 3.56 ERA and batters just hitting .228 against. Also he has been lights out recently in his last five starts allowing just four earned runs total in over 30 innings. I anticipate he is going to have another solid outing today against a weak road hitting team in Minnesota.

Kansas City ranks sixth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.47, seventh in OPS at .736, and first in team batting average hitting .272 as a team. Overall they have been consistent all season in producing runs but in the last few games have slumped just a little bit scoring one run, one run, and five runs in a surprising home sweep by the White Sox. They have a lot of guys throughout that lineup that can hit but they are facing a pretty tough pitcher in Milone, and as mentioned, if he hits his spots they could struggle again.

 

MLB Pick
I don't anticipate Kansas City to lack on the offensive end today too much but the total of eight is just a bit too high with both these teams combined. Look for Ventura to have a really good outing and shut down Minnesota while Milone does enough to keep Kansas City in check for a low-scoring final. For one of your MLB picks today I suggest backing the total in this playoff implication matchup.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (+100) at 5Dimes

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