Play the 'Total' for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 1:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 21, 2014 1:33 PM UTC

Our sport betting odds expert Ross Benjamin analyzes tonight’s MLB game between Arizona and St. Louis. Read what he has to say in that regard, and find out who his MLB free pick is on in this game.

Arizona/St. Louis Game 2 at Busch Stadium
The Cardinals will host the Diamondbacks on Wednesday at Busch Stadium in St. Louis Missouri with the first pitch slated for 8:15 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the Cardinals are a -160 money line home favorite and the posted total is 7.0. Tonight will be the 2nd of a 3-game series that saw the Cardinals win the opener 5-0. In that win Adam Wainwright was terrific in posting a complete game 1-hit shutout. Wainwright is now 8-2 in his team starts this season with a terrific 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The weather for tonight is calling for 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and the wind will be blowing out directly to centerfield at 6 miles per hour.


The Starting Pitchers
Arizona will send right-hander Brandon McCarthy to the mound tonight. McCarthy has gone a dismal 1-8 in his team starts this season while posting a lofty 5.01 ERA. However, McCarthy has been very good in 4 of his last 5 starts. During those last 5 outings he’s posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a better than 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio. McCarhty has seen each of his last 4 road team starts go over the total. 

The Cardinals will counter with 23-year old right-hander Michael Wacha. The youngster has gone 3-6 in his team starts this season while posting a very good 2.82 ERA. Wacha has gone 6-1 in his last 7 home team starts dating back to last season. Wacha has posted a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio over his last 4 starts. Wacha has seen each of his last 5 home team starts all go over the total.

Cardinals are Dominant at Busch Stadium
St. Louis is off to a 12-7 start at home this season, and dating back to 2013, they’ve gone an outstanding 37-14 in their last 51-games at Busch Stadium. They’ve gone an even better 40-13 in their last 53 home games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Cardinals enter tonight having won 5 of their previous 6-games, and have allowed just a cumulative 15-runs during those 6 outings. Their starting pitching has been brilliant so far this season as evidenced by their 2.95 ERA as a staff. On a negative note, the Cardinals Johnny Peralta and Matt Holliday are a combined 1-for-27 (.039 BA) in their careers when facing Brandon McCarthy.

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Holding Serve on the Road
The Diamondbacks are off to a disappointing 18-29 start to the season, with much of that failure being attributed to their inept play at home. Arizona has gone a dismal 6-18 at home thus far. Although they’ve not been terrific on the road, a 12-11 record in away games can be deemed as very respectable. If the Diamondbacks are to turn things around they must solve their pitching woes. Currently they’re 29th in the MLB with a staff ERA of 4.77. Arizona has gone a very profitable 7-1 in their last 8 following a game in which they allowed 5-runs or more.

Final Analysis
After having to face Adam Wainwright last night the Diamondbacks will welcome having to face anybody else tonight. Although you could face much worse starting pitchers than Michael Wacha, the Diamondbacks should put up a minimum of 3-runs this evening. The Cardinals will have the luxury of facing one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball this evening. My lean here is toward the over, and especially so with such a low number.

Free Pick: Arizona/St. Louis to go over the total of 7.0

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