Play Run Line Odds for Dodgers vs. Brewers MLB Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 2:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 5, 2015 2:43 PM UTC

This MLB handicapper focuses on the run-line odds for Tuesday's continuation of an early week, 4-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.

LA Dodgers (Greinke) (-1 ½ R/EVEN) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Garza) 8:10 ET
Milwaukee rallied for a 4-3 win with a 3-run 8th in Game 1 of the series.  In that contest, the Brewers caught the Dodgers sleepwalking, as following an extra-inning win at home on Sunday, they were forced to play Monday night following red-eye travel, 2 time zones east.  Now that LAD has acclimated to the time zone change, look for a huge bounce back victory in a pitching mismatch.

Every dog has its day in MLB!  Every season, 90% of the teams play between .400 and .600 baseball.  Milwaukee began the year 4-17, a record that begged for correction.  Yet, that hardly came as a surprise.  After a 51-34 start through June of 2014, the Brewers went 36-64 in their next 100 games through Sunday.  Milwaukee management had seen enough and pulled the plug on 5th year manager, Ron Roenicke.  In his place is former Milwaukee player, Craig Counsell.  Counsell takes the reigns at the right time.  With last night’s comeback win, the Brewers are now 4-1 of late after weekend wins vs. the Cubs.  But, they are still among MLB’s weakest offensive teams, averaging just 3.4 RPG.  Hard to expect much help from tonight’s starter, Garza, who makes his first ever start against the MLB Odds favored Dodgers.  For the season, Garza is 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA.  But, in a pair of starts from this mound, Garza has allowed 7 runs in 11 IP of work.  

Even with last night’s loss, the Dodgers are still 16-9 for the season and hold a 3-game divisional lead.  It is great solace to their backers that they have been one of the most resilient teams in MLB of late.  Since the start of last year, the Dodgers are 52-26/loss.  In addition, they are aided by the fact that Zach Greinke takes the mound in a role where he has been like money in the bank, following a LAD team loss.  Of course, Greinke has been money most every time he takes the mound, including 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA.  Though Greinke struggled in his 2 returns to Miller Park as a LA Dodger, it cannot be discounted that when pitching for Milwaukee, Greinke was 15-0 with a 2.93 ERA in 27 home starts from this mound.

Before placing your MLB Picks on the Run line, take note!  15 of 18 Milwaukee losses have come by 2 or more runs, while 13 of 16 LA Dodger victories have come by 2 or more runs.  LA has just 3 victories on the road this season.  But, all of those have come by 2 or more runs, meaning that in the last 2+ years, 78 of 97 LA Dodger road wins (80%) have come by 2 or more runs.

MLB Picks: Take LA Dodgers (Greinke) (-1 ½ R/+106) at Pinnacle

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