Place NLDS Picks Now on Cards Over Cubs While the Price is Right

Darin Zank

Saturday, October 10, 2015 1:11 PM GMT

After winning Friday St. Louis shoots for a sweep of the first two games of this NLDS with Chicago Saturday evening at Busch Stadium. Which way shoud we go with our picks against the MLB odds today?

Cubs-Cards NLDS Game 2 Odds
As of early Saturday morning the best MLB odds we could find on St. Louis with lefty Jaime Garcia was the -128 offered at Sports Betting, while Chicago with Kyle Hendricks was getting +127 at 5Dimes.

5Dimes is also now chalking the Cardinals at -185 to win this NLDS, with the Cubbies now getting +160.

 

The Situation
St. Louis took the opener of this best-of-five NLDS Friday night 4-0, getting 7 1/3 shutout innings from starter John Lackey, breaking the game open with three runs in the bottom of the eighth on homers by rookies Tommy Pham and Stephen Piscotty. Chicago put two runners on in the top of the ninth and had slugger Kris Bryant at the plate, but Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal got a called third strike to end the threat and the game.

St. Louis has now taken 12 of 20 games with Chicago this season, with the totals leaning toward the OVERS by an 11-8-1 margin.

We split our free MLB picks on Friday's game, losing with the Cubs but hitting on the UNDER.

 

Game 2 Pitching Match-Up
Garcia (10-6, 2.43), by our strict standards, is 12-for-20 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Eight days ago he gave up two runs and six hits in four innings against Atlanta, but over his last three starts he's allowed just four runs through 19 innings.

For the season St. Louis is 13-7 in Garcia's starts, with the totals skewing toward the UNDERS by a 13-6 margin.

This will be Garcia's first start against Chicago since April of 2012.

Hendricks (8-7, 3.95) is just nine-for-32 on quality starts, in part because of a short leash, but two for his last two. One week ago he threw six scoreless innings against Milwaukee, allowing just one hit, striking out eight, and just before that he threw six scoreless innings against Kansas City, allowing just two hits, striking out nine.

On the season the Cubs are 19-13 in Hendricks' starts, with the totals splitting 16-16.

In four career starts against St. Louis, three last year and one in May of this year, Hendricks allowed 10 runs and 27 base-runners through 22 2/3 innings; Chicago split those four games, as did the totals.

Must Read: Cubs-Cardinals Series Price Betting Odds

Game 2 Batting Splits
Chicago ranked 16th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .319 team on-base percentage, and 23rd with a .372 team slugging percentage.

St. Louis, on the other hand, ranked fourth against right-handed pitching with a .326 team OBP, 13th with a .409 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Busch Stadium during the regular season skewed UNDER by a lopsided 46-28 margin, as they averaged a shade under seven runs per, fewest among all ML ballparks. Friday's game played UNDER, too.

 

Cubs-Cards Game 2 Free Picks
We give St. Louis the check-mark in the pitching match-up, an edge in the batting split and a short edge in the comparison of the bullpens. So we'll go with the Cardinals for Game 2, the home team at a relatively short price.

Game 2 MLB Pick: Cardinals at 5Dimes

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