Pitching Update For Friday's MLB Line Up

John Ryan

Thursday, May 1, 2014 2:29 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 1, 2014 2:29 PM UTC

The Miami Marlins host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday as our Handicapper analyzes the pitching match-up and key factors in this game. Will Beckett's experience rule over Kohler or will we look at this game from a different angle?

Winning Pick
Today, I am confirming the play on the Dodgers with starting pitcher Mr. Haren boxed on the ticket. Here is a supporting system that has been a solid money maker producing a 35-10 mark making 25.1 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (Minnesota) with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start and with a struggling starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. The average play has been a +104 dog play. Note, that when I do provide supporting systems, metrics, and game situations it serves only to reinforce the play and is not the foundation for the play.  


Friday MLB Action 
On the Friday card I like taking the 'over' when the Marlins host the Dodgers in National League action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My simulator shows a very high probability that more than 8 runs will be scored in this game and that one team may score 7 or more runs on their own merit.  

Josh Beckett (0-0, 2.45 ERA) will face Tom Koehler (2-2, 2.97 ERA) in this game. This is a solid 'contrarian' play in that the flash stats would immediately lead you to lean toward the 'under'. Once the betting flows begin, I am confident that you will see the large majority of public wagers supporting the 'under'. I always want to have a play reinforced by the public being against me, so that I end up solidly on the book side of the wagering ledger.  

Mr. Beckett is quietly logging a very nice April and is coming off a no-decision 8 inning effort to the Colorado Rockies. He allows just four hits and ER, but those ER were solo home run shots. Mr Beckett throws a very high percentage of fastballs and will approach 90% of all pitches thrown in any given start. He is adept at changing speeds, location, and movement with that one pitch. However, he will be facing a solid fastball hitting lineup.  

In his career, Mr. Beckett has allowed a 0.295 batting average to the current members of the Miami Marlins. Most notable is Rafael Furcal, who has batted 0.407 (11-27) with five walks in 27 AB. I'm not expecting Mr. Beckett to have a horrid start, but I do believe he will be touched for a minimum of four runs in this start. 

Mr. Kohler has two years of MLB experience and is a 6-3, 233 lb. starter that is still inconsistent with his command. Although he has a paltry 2.97 ERA in five starts, he is coming off a below average start where he completed just 5 innings, allowed 4 ER with 1 HR and walked four batters while striking out just two  batters in a 4-0 loss to the Mets. The Dodgers lineup is significantly stronger than the Mets and I fully expect Mr. Koehler to struggle in this start.  

For our MLB pick, I anticipate a total for this game opening in the '8' area and I feel confident that 10 or more runs will be scored.

Free MLB Pick: Take the 'over' for a 5 star Titan play. 


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