Pitching Numbers & Batting Average Give Astros the Edge vs. Angels for Your MLB Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, May 7, 2015 3:04 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 7, 2015 3:04 PM UTC

The Houston Astros travel to L.A  for the first game against the Angels. The Astros  are favored by the odds makers tonight and here we'll explore this matchup to see where we can find the best value MLB pick.

Houston Astros (McHugh) (-105) vs. LA Angels (Santiago) 10:05 ET
The Houston Astros travel to Los Angeles for the first game of an extended weekend set. Houston took 2 of 3 earlier from LAA from April 17-19th. In going 98-64 last season, the Astros, who are 70-92 last year, were one of the major victims of the Angels breakout season, so keep this in mind when looking at the MLB odds. But, the fact that LAA is now 48-21 vs. sub-.500 teams is certainly not applicable to Houston this evening. In 2015, the script has been flipped.  Despite entering off 3 consecutive losses, Houston is still 18-10.  And despite the Angels entering off consecutive wins, they are just 13-15.  

Those consecutive LA victories came in the final 2 games on this field vs. Seattle.  They were both of the "walk-off" variety by scores of 5-4 on Tuesday and 4-3 last night.  In short, the Angels' offense has been far from dominant with a .226 BA and .638 OPS. Tonight's starter provides little hope.  The 3.14 ERA for Santiago far belies his current form and history.  In his most recent outing, Santiago worked 5 IP, allowing 4 earned runs in a 5-4 loss to San Francisco.  In 5 appearances vs. Houston, Santiago is 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA.   

Houston is the surprise team of the season in MLB. At the beginning of the week, they were on a 14-1 run, good for an 18-7 record. Even more shocking is that they just concluded a 3-game home stand against the woeful Texas Rangers in which they went 0-3, losing the 3-game set by a combined score of 20-5, including 11-3 last night. Tonight, however, they take to the road, where they are a MLB best (10-2).  Favoring this selection is the record of tonight's starter, McHugh. McHugh is 11-0 in his last 15 starts with Houston winning all 10 of his recent starts.  In his 4 most recent outings vs. LAA, McHugh has a 1.90 ERA.  Combine that with a 4.33 KBB ratio and you can see why he has been so successful.  

Perhaps these two teams have each turned a corner with recent results of this week.  But the divergent pitching numbers and the fact that Houston has a 7.45 to 6.38 OPS batting average are major reasons why the Astros get this victory tonight.  With the recent 3-game losing streak by the Astros, you will be interested in backing them with shades of recent seasons creeping into their mindset.  But, the YTD numbers and value price tells us this MLB pick provides great value. 

MLB Pick: Take Houston Astros at Bookmaker.

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