Pitching Mismatch in White Sox vs. Twins Influences Capper's MLB Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, April 30, 2015 2:20 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 30, 2015 2:20 PM UTC

The Chicago White Sox travel to Minnesota for the first of a 4-game, extended weekend set against this division rival. Which team will be good to the bettors in this opener? This handicapper will give you an answer as he makes his MLB pick.

Chicago White Sox (Sale)  vs. Minnesota Twins (May) 8:10 ET
The Chicago White Sox travel to Minnesota for the first of a 4-game, extended weekend set against this division rival. The White Sox took 2 out of 3 from the Twins in an earlier series from April 10-12th.  Though we seldom line up with the White Sox on the road, there is a dominant mismatch on the mound tonight which gives us a meaningful edge. The White Sox are listed on the MLB odds as short favorites tonight.

The Minnesota Twins enter tonight at 9-12.  It figures to be another lost season in the Twin Cities as Minnesota is projected to win just 73 games, the lowest win total projection in the American League.  That can’t be much of a surprise after the Twins have averaged just 67.3 victories the last 3 years.  In no season did they win more than 70 games.  They have played even worse at home than on the road with a combined record of 98-145 at Target Field those three years.  Do not expect the winning record of 5-4 on this field to continue.  Tonight’s starter, May, figures to do little to improve their chances.  May enters this contest with a record of 1-1 and a 4.91 ERA.  May left his previous start after 3 1/3 IP, when he was hit in the elbow by a line drive.  It is questionable as to how much the injury will negatively impact him in this start.  Do not be fooled by the fact that May went 2-0 LY against CWS with 16Ks in 11 IP. For, he allowed 6 runs in the process.  Note that it is more meaningful that May was 3-6 in his first year of MLB with the Twins in 2014.  In that time, he posted a 7.88 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and .314 BAA.  He is a pure PLAY AGAINST.

The Chicago White Sox enter with a record of 8-10. But, this team is expected to make progress after 63 wins in 2013 and 73 wins in 2014. In that time, they went just 59-103 on the road.  Their 2-7 record on the road this season is the function of the competition which has seen them travel to KC, Detroit and Baltimore.  CWS should be well rested, as 3 of their previous 5 games have been postponed including a pair this week due to the Baltimore riots.  Tonight, they send Chris Sale to the mound.  He may indeed serve a 5-game suspension for his role in the bench-clearing brawl in his last start against KC.  Until that is confirmed, however, we are eager to play on him.  In his most recent 5 starts against the Twins, Sale is 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA, 43 Ks in just 34 1/3 IP. This year, Sale is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  Since becoming a regular member of the CWS rotation in 2010, Sale has never had an ERA of more than 3.07 or a WHIP of 1.14.  He is a pure PLAY ON.

The White Sox don’t get many road victories. But, when they do, they are by multiple runs.  In fact, 46 of the last 61 CWS road wins, including 2-0 this season, have come by 2 or more runs. For the Twins, 78 of their recent 95 home losses, including 3 of 4 this year, have come by 2 or more runs. Lay the runs in an EVEN money price at a pitching mismatch for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: White Sox -1 ½ R/+105

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