Pitching Mismatch Makes Mariners Come Out As Valuable Road Dogs vs White Sox

Felix Hernandez

Friday, August 26, 2016 7:18 PM GMT

After a bad beat, the Mariners are still in the chase for a Wild Card spot. Today they visit Chicago needing a win to bounce back. Out Capper analyzes the matchup and provides his MLB pick

The Seattle Mariners are still in the hunt for a wild-card spot as they travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox today. Felix Hernandez gets the start for the Mariners while lefty ace Chris Sale takes the mound for Chicago. With two stellar pitchers on the mound, it seems like this game can go either way so is there any value backing Seattle who is a slight road underdog?

 

Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez takes the mound for Seattle and comes in with a 3.26 ERA and 1.22 whip but allowed five earned runs in six innings the last time he faced the White Sox. Hernandez has seen his own struggles this season but the Mariners have won the last four times he has taken the mound. He has been extremely good in that timeframe and actually good in his last five games allowing just 11 earned runs in about 34 innings of work. In his current win streak, he has allowed just 17 hits in about 30 innings which makes me believe he is starting to hit his stride. On the road won't be a problem as his numbers don't change all that much with a 3.35 ERA and batters hitting just .223 against him when Seattle travels. 

The Mariners have been struggling at the plate over the last several games but this is still a good offense that should be old to do some damage today. They had little success against Sale in their only opportunity to face him, however, they have more at-bats against southpaws this season than anyone else in the American League and are hitting .250 against them. Overall Seattle is still solid and ranks in the bottom part of the top 10 in most offensive categories like runs per game, total bases, and OPS.

 

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Chicago White Sox
Chris Sale gets the start for Chicago and comes in with a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 whip and allowed zero earned runs against the Mariners in his only start against them this season back in mid-July. He actually threw a one-hitter against them but surprisingly the Mariners rallied for four runs in the bottom of the ninth to pull out the victory. Although he is coming off one of his best performances of the year allowing zero earned runs in eight innings against Oakland he has not gone unscathed over his last 10 starts allowing eight earned runs to Atlanta, and five earned runs to Miami just two starts ago. Interestingly enough his home numbers are actually worse than his road numbers with a 4.01 ERA allowing 30 runs in just about 67 innings of work. 

Offensively the White Sox can be either hot or cold but overall they rank in the bottom third of the league in most categories. They don't have a lot of power in the lineup ranking 24th in both home runs per game and OPS as well is just 23rd in total bases. Despite the fact they have some success against Hernandez earlier this season they will be hard-pressed to repeat that type performance.

 

MLB odds have come out making Seattle a decent underdog in this spot around +115 across the board. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back Seattle at +119 at Bookmaker. This is good value on a good Seattle team with their best pitcher on the mound. Although they haven't had any success against starting pitcher Chris Sale this year they have faced lefties a lot to some success and should be able to score.

Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +119 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
July record: 13-9
August record: 13-12

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