Pitching Mismatch Increases Accuracy of Today's MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, August 19, 2014 12:12 PM GMT

Our resident sports handicapping expert Ross Benjamin takes a look at two starting pitching matchups this evening, and determines where the best betting value lies in each game. Read his revealing and insightful article before doing your MLB betting today.

Atlanta Braves (Harang) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) 7:05 PM ET
The Braves starter Aaron Harang has gone a dismal 0-6 in his last 6-starts against the money. He’s posted a deceivingly respectable 3.47 ERA in those 6-outings. However, his 1.51 WHIP during that time span indicates poor pitching form. In addition, Harang has walked more than he’s struck out over his last 3-starts, and has compiled a poor 1.62 WHIP in those outings.

The Pirates starter Francisco Liriano has seen his last 6-starts all go under the total and the veteran southpaw has been a major contributor in those MLB betting results. In those 6 outings he’s posted a terrific 1.89 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Liriano has gone 8-2 in his last 10 at home against the money when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Advantage: When you look at both of these starting pitchers whole body of work for 2014, you will see that their performance lines are very similar. The difference tonight is the fact that one guy (Liriano) has been in superb form in recent starts, and the other (Harang) has been shaky at best. My betting edge goes to Francisco Liriano of the Pirates over Aaron Harang of the Braves.

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Baltimore Orioles (Tillman) vs. Chicago White Sox (Quintana) 8:10 PM ET
The Orioles starter Chris Tillman enters tonight in excellent form over his last 3-starts going 3-0 against the money, posting a 1.74 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and struck out 16 while walking just 1. Tillman has been the recipient of excellent run support on the road in 2014. He’s gone 9-4 against the money in that role despite a lofty 4.68 ERA in those 13-starts.

The White Sox starter Jose Quintana has pitched extremely better than his money line record in 2014 would suggest. Although going a miserable 9-16 against the money this season, he’s posted a very good 3.14 ERA in those 25-starts. The White Sox right-hander has been superb in his last 4-starts at home by posting a sparkling 1.09 ERA. Quintana has seen just 7 of his last 27-starts (26%) at home go over the total.

Advantage: Quintana enters tonight red-hot at home, and Tillman is in stellar form of late. I like this one to be a low scoring affair. My lean in this game will be to make a small MLB pick on going under the total at Bodog Sportbook.

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