Pitching Mismatch Between A’s vs. Red Sox Makes Boston Your MLB Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, May 11, 2016 4:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 11, 2016 4:13 PM UTC

Oakland A’s (Surkamp) vs. Boston Red Sox (Porcello) is a momentum mismatch, as both teams and pitchers are headed in opposite directions. See my MLB pick and game breakdown here.

Oakland A’s (Surkamp) vs. Boston Red Sox (Porcello) 
This is a momentum mismatch, as both teams and pitchers are headed in opposite directions.  We will follow that momentum for a run line winner based on run line results which are 95% combined.  This momentum is borne out by the huge advantage that the Red Sox have at the plate.  Going into this week, Boston had the No. 5 OPS in batting at .795, compared to Oakland who had the No. 26th OPS at .670.  Based on the 27 runs scored by the Red Sox on Monday and Tuesday, I am certain that OPS batting number has risen.

It has not been much of a competition in the first 2 games of this series.  After a 14-7 win Monday night, the Red Sox again bashed Oakland 13-5 last night.  Oakland is now on a 1-8 slide and losers of 4 straight.  Boston, meanwhile, has improved their offensive average to 5.5 RPG, after totaling 27 runs the last 2 nights.  Those 2 victories have also extended the Boston series streak to 6 consecutive wins vs. Oakland.  

It is doubtful that Oakland starter, Surkamp, can stop the bleeding for Oakland.  Before being sent to AAA, Nashville, he was 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA.  Surkamp made it through the 5th inning only once in 4 April starts, prior to the demotion.  He will, in all probability, return to the minor leagues following this outing, as he has been recalled simply because Oakland needed an extra starter after playing a double header in Baltimore on Saturday. 

For Boston, Porcello would seem to have a clear advantage on the mound.  Porcello is off to one of his best starts ever with a record of 5-1, a 2.95 ERA and solid .644 OPS.  His peripherals are excellent with a 5.1 K/BB and .207 BA resulting in 5 quality starts.  He has been solid, if not spectacular, in 9 starts vs. Oakland in which he has a 3.12 ERA.  

We are eager to play this game on the run line, considering the fact that All 9 Oakland road losses have been by 2 or more runs, while 9 of 10 Boston home wins have been by 2 or more runs.  Those run line numbers for Boston are no surprise, considering that 178 of their 233 home wins in the previous 5 years have come by 2 or more runs.   I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Boston Red Sox tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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