Pitching Matchups to Influence Your MLB Picks

John Ryan

Tuesday, April 29, 2014 6:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 29, 2014 6:05 PM UTC

We revisit our free pick on the Phillies, and also get the early jump on tomorrow's matchup between the Brewers and the Cardinals. Get the full rundown of how the pitching matchups will likely play out.

I will be following up with all wager recommendations made the previous day to simply validate them before you take action. The premise of these reports is to prepare for the next day's wagering opportunities and then use that day to evaluate the next day's potential action. So many amateur bettors begin the day wondering who they will be taking action on and my process is designed to show you how to prepare and manage your time.  

In yesterday's report, I outlined a free pick on the Philadelphia Phillies with Cole Hamels boxed as the starting pitcher. The matchups are certainly still valid, but mother nature has added an unknown to this game. The weather in the Philadelphia area is forecast for intermittent showers and then for Wednesday to feature very heavy rains.  

So, if the weather forecast is calling for 50% or higher showers to occur in the Philadelphia region at the 7:00 PM ET game time start, I would negate this play. The reason is simple. I am looking for Hamels to pitch 7+ innings and with showers in the forecast, he could easily start and then get shut down before even the third inning starts. The Phillies bullpen has been largely inconsistent except for the backend and closer Papelbon. I do not want to make MLB pick in a situation where the middle relief for the Phillies will have a large impact into the outcome of the game. 



In early action Wednesday I like the Cardinals with Garza boxed as the starting pitcher when they host the Milwaukee Brewers set to start at 1:45 PM. Milwaukee has the best record in MLB at 19-7 and it is certainly no fluke during this 26-game span. Only Atlanta (17-7) and Oakland (16-10) have outscored their opponents by more than the Brewers. Moreover, the Brewers rank first in MLB with 21 quality starts, 2nd with a 2.56 ERA, best with a 1.05 WHIP, and third with a opponent 0.217 batting average. Now, they have their ace on the hill for this road tilt.  

Matt Garza has come along way in his career, especially on the mental side where he has demonstrated far greater poise than some of the meltdowns he exhibited in his early years. He has pitched well in his first five starts and earned his first win in his last start going a very strong 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 2 ER with just one BB and 7 K's. He is locating his fastball well in all count situations and is able to move off the plate when ahead in the count to induce easy ground ball outs. Over the past three season, opponents are batting just 0.217 when he establishes an 0-1 count.  

You may have heard his off the field comments about his friend, Samardzija, to simply pitch his way off the Cubs roster this season. Do not let that fool you into thinking he will be distracted by an negative media backlash. It just will not impact him when he takes to the hill.
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