Pitching Matchup & Recent Trends Suggest Cubs vs. Braves Will Go 'Under'

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, July 16, 2015 11:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 16, 2015 11:12 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional will examine Friday’s game between the Cubs and Braves. Take the time to read this revealing betting preview article which concludes with a pick on the total.

First Meeting of the Year Between NL Playoff Contenders
The Braves and Cubs will begin a three-game series in Atlanta on Friday at 7:35 PM ET. This will be the first meeting of the season between these National League clubs. Since 2013, Atlanta has gone 10-2 versus the Cubs, and that includes a perfect 6-0 at home. Those encounters in Atlanta have gone 4-1-1 under the total since 2013.


Starting Pitchers
The Cubs will go with right-hander Kyle Hendricks on the mound for this series opener. Hendricks enters today in terrific form over his last three starts with a perfect 0.00 ERA and an excellent 0.74 WHIP. The Cubs' hurler has a very good 3.55 ERA and compiled a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio in seventeen start this season.

The Braves' Julio Teheran will get the start on Friday. Teheran has gone 6-2 in his team starts at home in 2015 with a superb 2.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. As a matter of fact, Teheran hasn’t allowed an earned run during each of his previous two home starts in a combined 14.0 innings pitched, and both games went under the total.


Both Teams Recently Playing Under the Total
The Cubs enter tonight having gone 13-6-1 under the total in their last twenty games. They also scored 2 runs or less in nine of those twenty contests. The Cubs are coming off a 3-1 win in their previous game. They’ve gone 19-9 under the total this season following a game in which they allowed 2 runs or less.

The Braves are 15-5 under the total in their last twenty games. Atlanta will be facing a starting pitcher (Hendricks) tonight that has a 1.12 WHIP this season. They’ve gone 8-0 under the total at home this year when facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Those eight affairs have averaged just a combined 4.2 runs scored per game.


MLB Totals System
Since the start of the 2011 season, any team (Atlanta) with a winning percentage of .460 to .490, playing in the second half of the season, versus an opponent (Cubs) with a winning record, has seen that team go 81-35 (69.8%) under the total.

This game is certainly being played in the second half of the season. The Braves have a winning percentage of .472 heading into tonight, and the Cubs possess a record of 47-40. All of these conditions apply to the above profitable betting angle, and that’s the path I’ll take when making one of my MLB picks on Friday. Bookmaker provides us with the best current price in that regard.

MLB Pick: Play on the Cubs and Braves under 7.0 (-110) at Bookmaker

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