Pitching & Home Edge Makes Twins -123 Our MLB Pick Over Tigers

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:24 AM GMT

We cover tonight's Tigers vs. Twins game. Will the Tigers gain some ground on their AL Central rival with Cabrera still on the disabled list? Can the Twins continue their winning ways at home? Find out here!

Key AL Central Battle on Saturday at Target Field
The Twins host the Tigers on Saturday at 4:05 PM ET in their third of a four game series. These AL Central rivals have split the first two games. Detroit has gone 8-3 versus Minnesota this season, and those eleven games are 7-4 over the total. Minnesota heads into today second in the AL Central, 5.5 games behind first place Kansas City, and 2.5 games ahead of third place Detroit.

 

Starting Pitchers
Alfredo Simon will get the start today for Detroit, and he’s struggled terribly in recent appearances. Simon has displayed horrible form over his last four, posting a monster 10.18 ERA and 2.26 WHIP. The Tigers right-handed hurler has a lofty 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in eight road starts this year.

Phil Hughes will be on the mound today for Minnesota. Hughes has been terrific in his last four team starts, going 4-0 with an excellent 1.86 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and compiled an 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s shown impeccable control by walking just 11 men in 111 2/3 innings pitched this season. Putting that pinpoint control into perspective, he’s issued 1 walk per 10.15 innings pitched, and that’s off the charts good. Hughes is 17-8 in his team starts in day games since 2014, and 18-7 when facing an opponent with a winning record during that same time frame.

 

Tigers continue torrid Offense
Detroit is averaging 6.8 runs per game over their last seven, and has amassed 10 hits or more in eleven of their previous fourteen outings. The Tigers have gone an incredible 20-1 over the total in their previous 21 games.

 

Twins Tidbits
By virtue of Friday’s 8-6 win over Detroit, Minnesota is now a stellar 29-16 (.644) at home this season, and that includes 14-7 during day games. Minnesota has gone 4-1 in their last five games.

 

Final Analysis
We have a classic good form versus bad form scenario in regards to today’s starting pitchers. That’s one of my fundamental MLB handicapping theories, and Phil Hughes gets a huge edge over Alfredo Simon based on that concept. The Twins have also been exceptional at home, and sooner or later the absence of Miguel Cabrera in the middle of Detroit’s batting order will affect their offensive production. I’ll be using the home team as one of my MLB picks for Saturday. At the time of this writing it’s Pinnacle that has the cheapest price for a Minnesota money line wager.

MLB picks: Twins -123 on the money line at Pinnacle.