Pitching Duel Predicted in Pirates-Cardinals: Bet Under 6.5 Runs

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 12, 2015 11:44 AM GMT

Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2015 11:44 AM GMT

With playoff implications at play when the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals battle tonight, I am focusing my MLB pick on the run total odds. I don't see a lot of offensive production happening today at the plate.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers set this line real low at 6.5 but considering the pitching matchup it makes perfect sense. At most sports book the over or the under are at regular odds of -110, but at Bet Online sports book and Sports Betting sports book you get under the 6.5 at -105. This should be a real pitcher's duel today in St. Louis.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh's ace Gerrit Cole takes the mound with a 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 143 strikeouts, and a 14-5 record. The 24-year-old has simply been outstanding all year and on the road he has been even better with a 2.01 ERA. In his one start against the Cardinals this season he allowed two earned runs over seven innings pitched, and I look for him to have another strong start today. In his last 10 starts he's only had one tough outing where he gave up five earned runs, except for that one game he has allowed three runs or less in his other nine starts.

At the plate the Pirates rank 11th in runs scored per game at 4.22, 15th in OPS at .711, and seventh in team batting average hitting .258. Like most major leagues teams they hit better at home than on the road and all their major offensive statistics go down away from Pittsburgh. They have an extremely tough task today at the plate facing an extremely good home pitcher in Michael Wacha.  So far against this season they have had limited success and don't anticipate them breaking through today.

Charles also recommends betting Orioles +130 vs. Mariners today.

St. Louis Cardinals
Wacha takes the mound for the Cardinals with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 whip, 112 strikeouts, and a 13-4 record. He has pitched twice against Pittsburgh this season allowing two earned runs in just 12 innings, and at home both his ERA and WHIP drop to 2.51 and 1.01. He seems to be grooving right now allowing zero runs in his last two starts in 14 innings with just eight hits total. In his last five home starts he has allowed just seven total earned runs, the guy can simply be lights out.

At the plate the Cardinals rank 19th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.96, 17th in OPS at .709, and 13th in batting average hitting .253. Naturally both there OPS and batting average go up in St. Louis, but surprisingly their average run total goes down at home. They might have a little bit more success against Cole today but I don't foresee them putting up runs in bunches against him.

This is a playoff-like game for both teams but I think we have a matchup where the pitchers are going to dominate the day. Although the line is pretty low at 6.5 I just don't see either of these offenses doing a lot of damage at the plate against either of these starters. Back the under for your Wednesday MLB pick and look for really tight game that goes down to the last innings.

MLB Picks: Under 6.5 

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