Pitchers to Shade & Pitchers to Fade with Friday's MLB Picks

Doug Upstone

Friday, May 22, 2015 4:20 PM GMT

In today’s Pitcher Report we will examine three hurlers from a betting standpoint, as we try to understand if they can produce a positive result versus the sportsbooks betting odds.

Orioles vs. Marlins: Miami Needs Alvarez to be a Stud
You have to wonder if Miami owner Jeff Loria would want a – do over – naming his GM Dan Jennings as the field manager. Jennings has made questionable judgments as the Marlins skipper and his team was swept at home over four games by Arizona. That makes it seven straight losses, also 10 of 11 defeats and eight in a row Marlins Ballpark.

Though the offense was better in 7-6 setback to the Diamondbacks, the starting pitching has been pathetic with an ERA of 6.24 in their past nine outings. To end all this losing, Miami in the worst way needs Henderson Alvarez (0-3, 6.23 ERA) to have a great game. Alvarez allowed six runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings last Sunday, his first start after a stint on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation.

Alvarez relies on a sinking fastball that tops out at 94 MPH and mixes in a slider and changeup. Despite the velocity, there is a sameness to his tosses and he strikes outs few batters. The Marlins are +110 home underdogs to Baltimore at GTBets.eu, whom they have beaten 11 of 12 times at home. With the Orioles 1-9 in road night games, the Marlins nightmare could end if Alvarez pitches to ability.

Advantage – Alvarez and Miami

 

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: Arizona Tries to Stay Hot with Cold Collmenter
The last time the D-Backs lost was Sunday when Josh Collmenter (3-5, 5.36) was blasted yet again, giving up four runs in six innings. In his previous three starts the Snakes right-hander has an enormous 11.30 ERA, surrendering 24 hits (6 homers) in only 14 1/3 innings. Collmenter will be back at Chase Field, where his luck has hardly been any better with a 1-4 record and 6.84 ERA.

This spring when it was announced Collmenter would be part of the Arizona rotation, sports handicappers and those who daily post MLB picks knew he is not a true every fifth day starter with a mid-80’s fastball that lacks movement. He’s better suited as a long reliever or a setup man, not being exposed to opposing hitters more than once a game.

Collmenter and company are +125 home underdogs in MLB betting odds against the Cubs and Jon Lester (4-2, 3.70), who is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four May outings. The D-Backs starter should have some confidence coming in as he is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three home starts versus Chicago (Arizona 2-1 record) and his team is 10-2 after three or more consecutive away games. Nevertheless, Lester since last season is 15-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175. (Team's Record) I will be personally be checking this contest out.

Disadvantage – Collmenter and Arizona

 

Padres vs. Dodgers: Cashner Needs a Win, Badly
San Diego’s Andrew Cashner (1-7, 3.24) has been backed by two total runs while losing a career-high five straight starts in spite of a pretty good 3.55 ERA. On the one hand Cashner is catching the Los Angeles Dodgers at maybe the right time, who were just swept at San Francisco without scoring a single run and are scoreless over 31 consecutive innings. Cashner will try to add their misery and hopefully extend it to a team record 37 straight innings of zeros.

However, being back at Dodger Stadium could be the right elixir for Dodger Blue where they score 5.3 runs per game and they will have Zack Greinke (5-1, 1.52) on the hill and he is 5-0 with a 1.58 ERA in nine career outings against the San Diego. With the Padres averaging an anemic 2.9 RPG in their last seven contests, the MLB odds having San Diego as +180 underdogs appear well justified.

Disadvantage – Cashner and San Diego