Picks Of The Day, May 7th

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Mark Lathrop

Sunday, May 7, 2017 2:09 PM GMT

Sunday, May. 7, 2017 2:09 PM GMT

A marquee matchup is on store to end this week's MLB action, and our handicapper has an angle on it you won't want to miss as one of his Sunday Picks of the Day.
 

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs

The New York Yankees have the 2nd ranked offense in the MLB according to accrued Wins Against Replacement (WAR). Our handicapper likes their odds in the Windy City on Sunday Night Baseball.

Jon Lester gets the start in this game for the Cubs, and he is coming off of a fantastic 19-5 campaign in 2016. One thing you need to watch out for with older pitchers though is the season after an extended postseason run. Lester has lost almost a tick off of his fastball this year, and he is allowing a troublesome split to right-handers so far. Lester sees right-handers 4 times more than left handers, so we have a 26.2 inning sample size to look at in 2017. In that time, he has allowed a robust .295 batting average against righties on the year. His walk rate has also skyrocketed 50% to 9.4% - all to right handers. Lester has not walked a lefty this year.

The Yankees offense has been clicking on all cylinders. They will be able to stack it with right-handers that will present a matchup problem for Lester in his current state.

The Bronx Bombers will counter with Luis Severino, and since we are focusing on splits the young right-hander has allowed a .172 batting average against lefties and .234 BAA against righties. The Cubs are a lefty heavy lineup, as we focused on when Philadelphia’s Eflin came in with a similar split last week. Unless Severino is thrown off by having to bat in the National League park, the Yankees have the advantage in this matchup and are a steal at +125 at BookMaker. I will also be taking the Under when the lines come out based on the wind blowing in at Wrigley come gametime.

Free MLB Pick: New York +125 & UnderBest Line Offered: at BookMaker

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 Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City

Both of these teams have struggled on offense in recent games, and our MLB handicapper believes we should ride this hot trend.

I’m not one to look at team trends much, instead focusing on individual matchups. However, there are times when a macro trend slaps you in the face and you have to ride it until it is time to get off. The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals face of on Sunday and they have struggled mightily at the plate to start the season.

Cleveland is cashing Unders on the road at a 10-4 clip and have cashed the Under in 9 of 11 games. They average just 2.9 runs per game against lefty starters and are batting a terrible .199 against those pitchers. Kansas City is cashing Unders at home at an 11-4 clip and are scoring just 3.1 runs per game at home while batting .220 against right-handed starters.

In addition, both of these bullpens have been great should one of the starting pitchers falter. Kansas City’s bullpen has put up an excellent 2.76 ERA at home and Cleveland’s bullpen has a 1.94 ERA overall. With the total currently listed at 8.5 across the board, I have no choice but to take the Under currently listed at Pinnacle.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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