Picks Of The Day, May 5th

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Mark Lathrop

Friday, May 5, 2017 12:47 PM GMT

Friday, May. 5, 2017 12:47 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper continues his streaky ways, with a 6-1 ATS stretch over the last two days putting him back over .500. Units is what he needs (Record indicated with 1 unit bets), and he's got two Overs that he likes to cash those tickets Friday night.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JE54ENO3N9k", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies

Even though the listed starters have shifted around a bit online, this game has all of the hallmarks of a typical Coors Field slugfest. The weather will be hot and the wind blowing out for this Friday night game in Denver.

I backed the likely starter for the Rockies in this game, German Marquez, when he made his season debut against the Washington Nationals on April 25th. He rewarded me by giving up 8 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. He followed that up on the road against this Arizona team with 6 innings of shutout baseball and 8 strikeouts coupled with just a single walk. The command was definitely there, although the Diamondbacks still got six hits off of the youngster.  On the year, Marquez is allowing a .375 batting average against lefties and .286 against righties. My guess is that he makes it one turn through the rotation in this game before getting knocked around.

Zack Greinke starts opposite of Marquez for the Diamondbacks and his results are a little misleading. He has given up just 5 runs in his last 20 innings, but 4 of those runs are by solo homers. A little bad sequencing and he could have had drastically different results. With the weather primed for homers, I’m not expecting Greinke to pitch a shutout here. I’m taking the Over even with Arizona’s ace on the mound at Pinnacle.

Free MLB Pick: Over Best Line Offered: *No Lines Released At Press Time*

 

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners

The Mariners bullpen has been destroyed over the last few games, as short starts and extra innings have chewed them up. Even if the starters do well in this game, the value here is on a late surge Over the total.

The Seattle Mariners have the 27th ranked bullpen in overall wins against replacement (WAR), and it doesn’t look to be getting better anytime soon. The team is dealing with multiple injuries to both starters and relievers, and the starters being out served to put more innings on those backup bullpen arms. Seattle’s bullpen has put up a 5.97 ERA on the year. The Rangers have been only slightly better in the bullpen, putting up a 5.50 ERA over 86.2 innings pitched.

The reason this total sits at 7.5 is because of Rangers starter Yu Darvish alone. Darvish has been pitching well I’ll give him that, but his .222 BABIP is nearly 70 points lower than his career average. It’s an indication that his 3.03 ERA is a bit of a mirage, and with the total at just 7.5 we won’t need much of a slip, combined with Seattle’s late-game ineptitude, to take this game Over the listed total. I’m taking Over 7.5 runs in this game at Heritage as one of my Friday night MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 7.5 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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