Picks Of The Day, July 5th

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, July 4, 2017 7:45 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 4, 2017 7:45 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper gets an early start on these matchups on July 5th, and looks to take advantage of a trend that he's spotted with one of the best pitchers in the league thus far.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers

The Arizona Diamondbacks continue a very important series with the NL West leading Dodgers on Wednesday night. They’ll face Alex Wood, who has shown signs of fatigue although the results haven’t turned yet.

I’ve written about this before, but eventually Alex Wood is going to have an issue with his continually declining fastball. The results have been good throughout the season for Wood, maybe even historic, but the converted reliever was down to 91.5 mph on his fastball in his last start against the Padres. I took the Padres on the run line to fade Wood in that game and promptly had my face ripped off as the Dodgers offense was having none of it. For that reason, I am looking at derivative plays to take advantage of my analysis of Wood, as well as taking the run line with a stronger lineup in the Diamondbacks.

Even though Zack Godley has a 3.19 FIP and .188 batting average allowed on the year, the odds are still stacked in the Dodgers favor. Backing Godley can be done +1.5 on the run line for almost even odds. This is an incredible discrepancy that can’t be missed, regardless of the Dodgers record. I’ll take the Arizona team total Over – which should settle in at 3.5, and the Diamondbacks on the run line +1.5 at -115 at BetOnline as two of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona TT Over 3.5 & Arizona +1.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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  San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Indians

In this matchup, we have two pitchers with expected positive regression in terms of their ERA. Read on as our MLB handicapper spots a total too high for the starters at hand.

Trevor Bauer starts on Wednesday for the Cleveland Indians against the San Diego Padres. He is favored at -223 on the moneyline as the Padres offense is terrible. That makes it surprising that the total is listed at 9.5 runs for this game. The books are assuming that most of that total will come from the Cleveland lineup, and they will face a pitcher doing an admirable job even in the face of bad run support.

Luis Perdomo of the Padres has put up an average FIP of 4.36 on the year and has an xFIP of 3.89. That difference indicates that he’s gotten bit by the long ball on the season, and his 20% HR/FB rate reflects that.  He’s improved throughout the year though and has dropped his ERA in every month as the season goes along, picking up a 4.50 ERA in June. This will be his first start against the Indians, which should be enough to give him a head start and log some innings without too much damage. With the line at 9.5 and Bauer expected to deal, I’ll take that combination to grab the Under as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 9.5 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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