Picks of the Day for Tuesday, May 2nd

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Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, May 2, 2017 12:44 PM GMT

Handicapping baseball can be tricky, our expert Mark Lathrop is willing to accept a little more juice on the following safe plays to a bigger chance of cashing a ticket. Join him for his MLB picks of the day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/zWbEj8xODjc", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]  Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

 

The totals line on this game has dropped to 7.5 runs, which makes me believe that getting spotted a run at the beginning of the game has excellent value. That’s just what Milwaukee will be getting as these two NL Central foes meet on Tuesday night.

The Milwaukee Brewers have used their hot April offense to stay in the middle of the pack in the NL Central, ranking 2nd in runs scored in the National League. They’ve been especially dangerous on the road, picking up a 6-3 record in the process through Sunday.

Their pitching has not been so good; however, which has me surprised that the odds makers would put out a totals line of 7.5 on this game. Sometimes you have to just accept what the line is telling you, and that the pitching matchups are better than one would realize. For me, I see Wily Peralta’s 5.87 FIP on one hand, and an increase of almost two ticks on his fastball on the other. He’s 4-1 on the season and pitching to contact like never before in his career. Carlos Martinez, the starter for the Cardinals, is 0-3 on the season but has a superior 3.79 FIP. I don’t trust either pitcher here, which is exactly why taking the run line underdog is the right play. I’ll take the 1.5 runs on Milwaukee in a tossup at a reasonable price of -140.

 

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee +1.5Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners

 

The Seattle Mariners have been bitten by the injury bug recently but one thing is for certain when James Paxton is healthy he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Here he takes on the Angels at home where the M’s have played like a different team.

Matt Shoemaker starts this game for the Angels, and he is on track to almost double his home runs allowed over last year. Carrying a 19.4% HR/FB rate, Shoemaker has an increased fly ball rate and pull rate in batted ball statistics. Pulled balls are gone balls… in more than one situation. Shoemaker’s FIP of 5.53 indicates to me a pitcher that is struggling.

James Paxton gets the start for the Mariners and I am done fading any of his starts this year. He followed up a performance in which he gave up his first runs of the year by throwing another 7-inning gem of shutout ball with nine strikeouts and just one walk. His FIP of 1.17 is most impressive, but his 39/6 K/BB rate is even more so – especially considering he throws 98 mph late in the game with control. I’m backing one of the best things the M’s have going for them this year and taking them -140 on the moneyline at home as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks.

 

Free MLB Pick: Seattle -140Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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