Picks of the Day for Thursday, May 4th

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, May 4, 2017 12:32 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 4, 2017 12:32 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots two plays on the board with valuable odds on Thursday night, and breaks them down here for his Thursday MLB Picks of the Day! May the 4th be with us as he makes his selections.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/AP-bdGZX9Tc", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]  Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres


A strong performance split favoring Colorado leads to this pick on the Rockies. Our handicapper breaks down the numbers for this NL West Matchup.

Kyle Freeland of the Rockies has had a strong start to his season, with the only blemish being against the San Diego Padres in Colorado in mid-April. Freeland gave up 6 earned runs in that matchup, but has steadied the ship in giving up only 2 earned runs over 17 innings pitched since that game. He is primed for a bounce-back performance against the Padres here, as the left-hander faces a team that hits only .219 against lefties and .217 at home.

Freeland matches up with Luis Perdomo of the Padres, who has been abused by the Rockies in his starts against them. The 23-year-old righty has limited walks and home runs this year, but he will have to be nearly perfect to beat the Rockies with San Diego’s offense set to struggle at home in this game against Freeland. Perdomo’s 4.96 ERA is right in line with his preseason projections and if he comes out of the game early the Padres’ bullpen 4.81 ERA will come into play. We are getting tossup odds for a not toss-up matchup in my opinion, which is why I will be taking Colorado on the moneyline for Thursday night.


Free MLB Pick: Colorado -100Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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   Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox  


The Orioles finish up their 7-game road trip on Thursday evening with the completion of their series against the Red Sox. Two of the four games have already gone under the listed total as I write this, with the 3rd trending that way with the game in progress. The two starters for this game suggest a different trend. The total of 10 has been placed on this game across the board, but the Red Sox have a slight home advantage on the moneyline.

Kyle Kendrick gets his first major league start in 2 seasons for the Red Sox in this game as he fills in for the injured knuckleballer, Steven Wright. Kendrick last pitched for the Rockies in a 2015 campaign that saw him go 7-13 with a 6.32 ERA. His ground ball rate of 38.8% in 2015 was an obviously bad fit for Coors Field. Kendrick has seen some time with AAA Pawtucket this year to what I would say are poor results. An FIP of 5.82 is not impressive against AAA hitting, and his 18.9% HR/FB rate is not a good sign either. Kendrick’s .224 BABIP is well below his career average though, if any Red Sox fans are in need of a silver lining.

Ubaldo Jimenez starts this game for Baltimore, his 5th start of the year. Of those five starts, he only has one qualifying one, lasting past the 5th inning in just a game two weeks ago at Cincinnati. Jiminez has given up multiple home runs in two of those starts with walks also being a huge issue. His FIP of 6.96 shows that his ERA of 7.43 is well deserved, and his 16/15 K/BB rate won’t cut it against this Boston lineup. A HR/FB rate of 21.4% tells me that he is definitely not pitching a shutout against this hacking Orioles lineup.

Boston also hits righty starters very well with a .273 batting average over about a season’s worth of combined at bats. They also hit very well at home with a combined .281 batting average. If I could trust Kyle Kendrick just a lick I’d be backing the Red Sox in a flash, but in this case, the moneyline odds of -121 are truly warranted. With both starters being not worthy of trust, the play here is to take the 'Over'.


Free MLB Pick: Over 10Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

**UPDATE: Pitching change announced for Orioles, lines has been taken down momentarily**

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