Picks of the Day for Thursday, June 22nd

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, June 22, 2017 12:13 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper has turned the corner on June and has finally started accruing units. Read on as he breaks down two games that he believes has wagering value on the Thursday MLB betting card.

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Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles 

Our MLB handicapper picks up a common statistic between these two starters which could result in runs being scored in bunches. Read on as he makes the call and breaks down this game between the Orioles and Indians.

Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians in this game after being called back up from AAA. He’s been back and forth from the minors a few times this year and this will be his 8th start of the season with the big-league club. Even though Clevinger is running a 3.89 ERA on the season, he has a huge red flag with his 4.38 BB/9 rate. He is also running his fastball up to the plate at a tick and a half less than last year. Velocity lets pitchers get away with mistakes in the zone, and Clevinger has a hard time finding that at the moment.

Clevinger will face Wade Miley of the Orioles, who is also having issues with command this year. The 30-year old is running a 5.05 BB/9 rate, which is nearly double his career average. This type of loss of control is usually the harbinger of some kind of elbow issue. Miley has given up 15 earned runs over his last 11 innings and 3 starts, so frankly I am surprised he is still starting this game. I’ll be taking the Betting Odds of 10.5 currently listed at Heritage as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Free Pick Over 10 (-120)Best Line Offered: At Heritage

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-Want another MLB Total Play? Check Out Willie Bee's Pick on the Cubs vs Marlins -

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners 

The Mariners have made a big move in calling up one of their top pitching prospects to start this game against Detroit. Instead of fading Yovani Gallardo and Daniel Norris for an Over we get an angle to back the rookie on the Moneyline.

Daniel Norris gets the start for the Tigers in the final game of their series on the road in Seattle. Norris has middling numbers this year, which are reflected in his 4-4 win-loss record. My problem with Norris right now is found deep into his splits, where he is allowing a .303 batting average to opposing batters in June. He also allows a .320 batting average with the bases empty – a strange split that suggests he is always working through men on base in games.

Andrew Moore has been called up for the Mariners and gets the start in place of the struggling Yovani Gallardo. I could write a diatribe about Moore, but nobody has done a better job than my friends at the Mariners blog, Lookout Landing, so I will direct you to it here. What I particularly like about Moore is his control and ability to keep the ball in the park. Through 48 innings of AAA the right-hander has put up a 1.50 BB/9 rate and 8.2% HR/FB rate. His HR/FB rate has never exceeded 9% so that is a good sign. I’ll back the rookie in this spot with Seattle getting their full lineup back (see: Jean Segura), and take them on the Moneyline at 5Dimes when the odds come out this morning.

MLB Free Pick: Seattle Mariners on the Money Line (-118)Best Lines Offered: Bookmakers

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