Picks of the Day for Sunday MLB

Jay Pryce

Sunday, August 6, 2017 2:32 AM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 6, 2017 2:32 AM UTC

The Mets look to pin down the red-hot Dodgers, while the Diamondbacks hope to extend their NL Wild Card lead versus the Giants on Sunday. Check out our MLB Picks of the Day here.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Jeff Samardzija is aiming for his third win in a row on Sunday as he commands the hill in the series finale versus the Diamondbacks. The right-hander is just 6-11 through 22 starts this season, but is the best in the San Fran rotation behind ace Madison Bumgarner. Samardzija owns a 3.54 FIP, second best on the team working 30 innings or more. Run support is scant for the former All-Star. When backed with 4 or more scores the Giants are 7-3 SU, but 2-10 SU when crossing the plate 3 times or fewer.

Patrick Corbin is scheduled to challenge Samardzija. The southpaw was roughed up for 7 earned runs in 3.0 innings in a 16-4 rout at the Cubs in his last start. The defeat is part of a larger trend in which Corbin struggles on the road this season. He owns a 7.06 ERA and 5.87 FIP away from home, each career-highs.

Arizona is 19-6 SU all-time behind Corbin versus a team winning fewer than 43 percent of games (Giants, .378). More than half the losses have come this season, going 6-4 overall (2-2 away). The left-hander has allowed 4 runs or more in all but one of 10 road starts. The Giants reach Samardzija’s magic number for our MLB picks and earn a victory for the veteran arm.

Free MLB Pick: San Francisco -119 Best Line at time of Writing at Pinnacle

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Dodgers vs. Mets

Hyun Jin Ryu is the only pitcher in the Dodgers’ rotation with double-digit appearances in which the team posts a losing record (7-8 SU), burning 14 percent of one’s investment at -153 average odds. Much of the damage came early in the season with the club losing seven of his first nine appearances. L.A. is 4-1 SU in his last five starts, yielding just 2.80 runs per contest.

Steven Matz and Ryu dueled at Dodgers Stadium less than two months ago, New York losing 6-3 on June 22. The Mets right-hander limited L.A.’s lineup to 3 hits in 6.0 innings, but two of those were of the long-ball variety. Control was also an issue for Matz, issuing 5 walks to 8 strikeouts. He’s walked 7 in 32.1 frames since, but was called out recently by manager Terry Collins for hanging the ball in the zone too often. Matz’s ERA has ballooned from 3.60 to 5.50 since his L.A. outing.

The Dodgers are 41-7 SU since June 8. Betting against them is akin to burning a wad of cash. The run has inflated the value of the team, and picking spots to wager against should provide value in coming weeks. This is one of those spots. For as bad as Matz has looked at times, he’s managed to hold opponents to 2 runs or fewer through the first 5 innings in half his 2017 starts. This includes a shutout in his last appearance at hitting-friendly Coors Field. The Dodgers bats are cooling a bit too. Prior to Saturday, they have collected double-digit hits in just one of their last seven games. Teams on a roll find ways to win in the end, so we’ll buy into the Mets through the first five innings only.

Free MLB Pick: Mets 1st 5 MLBest Lines at Bookmaker


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