Picks of the Day for September 9th

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, September 9, 2017 2:22 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 9, 2017 2:22 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop has found more than a few convergences of trends to find value on the Saturday MLB betting card. One pick may even qualify as his strongest of the year. Read on as he leads us to profit with his Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Colorado Rockies vs L.A. Dodgers

Our MLB handicapper is drooling over this total line offered in Los Angeles tomorrow night. A few trends come together and we should be ready to throw down on the Over.

This could be my pick of the year, and I hate that because I am so comfortable with the side I am on. You all know I have been fading Alex Wood the last half of this season with his declining velocity. He finally went on the DL with an injury and came back just to lose to the lowly San Diego Padres. Wood has given up 5 home runs in his last 2 starts, and the Colorado lineup is not as anemic as San Diego’s. In the second half of the season, he has also sputtered with a 4.96 FIP, not to mention his velocity did not come back with him on his return from the DL this time.

Wood will face Chad Bettis of the Rockies who comes into this game with a 5.62 FIP in limited action. Bettis has allowed 2 home runs in 3 starts straight, and has allowed a .286 BAA on the road with a terrible .684 SLG allowed as well. He could get rocked early in this game too and walks batters at a 4.66 BB/9 clip the first time through the batting order. I’ll be laying my money on Over 8 at 5Dimes as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140377, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,1275,169,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals

A trend Mark picked up on Labor Day goes even deeper when examined, leading to a call to fade Jose Berrios on the road yet again on Saturday.

On a Labor Day tweet video (follow @mlathrop3), I explained how I noticed that Jose Berrios was having velocity drops in his road starts. It just happens that this phenomenon is even worse in the second road start in a row for Berrios. In fact, his lowest average fastball velocity in a start was his last back-to-back roadie which came in at 92.8 mph on August 1st. Compare that to the mid-95’s that Berrios usually averages in his home starts. On the year, Berrios has a 2.69 FIP at home and a 4.91 FIP on the road. Something is up with his road routine.

Berrios will face rookie Jakob Junis of the Kansas City Royals. Nick Pollack over at Fangraphs does an excellent job of breaking down his recent success. His 4.42 FIP over the entire season isn’t sparkly, but his 2.14 FIP over the second half of the season is downright ace quality. He also has a favorable home split as well, carrying a 3.10 FIP over the entire season. I don’t think I need to explain any more why Junis being an underdog here is a travesty, and I will be picking the Kansas City Royals at +110 on the moneyline as another Saturday MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals MLBest Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140005, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,1275], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here