Picks of the Day for September 6th

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Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, September 6, 2017 12:41 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 6, 2017 12:41 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop is coming off of a string of games in which the analysis was spot on yet the results were mixed. He looks to keep grinding out W's and digs deep for his Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 188-168-9, +7.13 units (1 pending)

 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

Mark spots a pitcher that has been completely awful of late in Milwaukee. He sees no need to stop fading Matt Garza as he pitches in offense friendly Cincinnati.

Matt Garza has been terrible in the month of August and his starts keep getting shorter for the Milwaukee Brewers. This will be his first start in September, and he will try to improve on his .302 BAA, .598 SLG, 6.00 BB/9 rate, 1.96 WHIP, and 7.69 FIP from last month. Those are truly awful numbers for one month, but I see that Garza has struggled mightily pitching out of the stretch all year. With men on base his K-BB% drops from 11.5% to just 0.5% on the season.

Garza will face the Reds’ Luis Castillo, a right-handed fireballer that can touch 100 mph on the radar gun. He owns a nifty 3.86 FIP on the season with a .183 BAA at home. Castillo has improved over the second half of the year as well and has dropped his FIP from 4.66 to 3.55 over that split. The chalk is deserved in this spot, but will swallow it and take the Brewers on the moneyline at 5Dimes as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Cincinnati MLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays

Before Tuesday night the Twins and Rays offenses were hotter than Hades. Mark believes the lack of offense yesterday is the start of a new trend.

Coming into Tuesday night, the Twins were averaging 7.6 runs per game and the Rays 5.6 runs. The Rays won that game 2-1 going well under the listed 9-run total and ruining my Twins pick in the process. Another good pitching matchup this afternoon has Aaron Slegers getting his 2nd start of his career for the Twins. He’s been excellent in AAA this year, picking up a 15-4 record with a 3.32 FIP and 7.6% HR/FB rate.

Slegers will match up with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now, Blake Snell. Snell has a 3.64 FIP over the second half of the season with a 3.21 ERA and .225 BAA. He’s given up more than 3 earned runs just once in his last 10 starts – with the one game being a 6-4 Rays win over Toronto. I’ll back Snell to keep things going here, and with Slegers having the element of surprise I like him to have success as well. It all boils down to an Under call at 5Dimes as another Wednesday MLB selection.

Free MLB Pick: Under 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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