Picks of the Day for September 30th

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, September 30, 2017 12:38 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 30, 2017 12:38 PM UTC

It's the last Saturday of the regular season and our handicapper still finds value on the board. Read on as Mark Lathrop breaks down his Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Seattle Mariners vs L.A. Angels  

I got to see Ricky Nolasco pitch in person in the only MLB game I attended this year. He gave up a dinger right after I said, “watch this he is going to give up a dinger”.

Ricky Nolasco has gotten lit up in 3 of the 5 starts he’s had against the Mariners this year. The sheer number of times this lineup has seen him is a detriment to his chances in this game. In the 6th matchup of the year, the lineup will be optimized, batters will know what to expect, and dingers will be had.

Andrew Moore starts for Felix Hernandez in this game, as the Mariners decide a pitcher with a 5.64 FIP is worth getting major league innings. He gave up 4 runs against the Angels in early August over just 1.2 innings pitched in relief, so I don’t like his chances in this spot. Moore doesn’t walk a lot of batters, but he also doesn’t strike out anyone either. He is dangerous in the strike zone, as it were. I’ll fade both of these pitchers by taking the Over of 9 runs as a Saturday MLB selection.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

It is rare these days for a player to be with one team his entire career. Matt Cain is one of those players and makes his last start for the Giants after a 13-year career in San Francisco.

When it comes to late season games with teams that are out of contention we often have to search hard for an edge. This is not one of those cases, as the Giants’ beloved pitcher, Matt Cain, will make his last start before retiring at the end of this season. It’s been a rough go of it for Cain since the 2013 season, as he has only one 11 decisions over the last 4 years. After 8 seasons from 2006 to 2013 of consistent good pitching, injuries got the best of Cain. He has a good chance to play well for the home crowd in this spot, as he has done it all year. This season Cain has a great 3.08 ERA split at home.

Jhoulys Chacin has good overall numbers on the year but also has one of the most drastic home-away splits of any starter I’ve seen. Over 174.1 innings pitched Chacin has a 1.79 ERA at home and 6.93 ERA on the road. The split doesn’t end there, as the right-hander also carries a .172 BAA and 0.98 WHIP at home versus a .301 BAA and 1.68 WHIP on the road. Being that this is a road game against a motivated team backing Cain is an easy decision. I’ll take the Giants at even money on the moneyline as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants MLBest Line Offered: at BetOnline

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2017 MLB Record, 213-189-11, +9.94 units (1 Pending)

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