Picks of the Day for September 28th: A's & Rangers + Braves & Miami

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, September 28, 2017 12:18 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 28, 2017 12:18 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop is hoping that the MLB season will never end, because now that strong trends are in place it is easier to spot excellent wagering value. Read his thoughts here as he makes his Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

The Texas Rangers will be glad that the Houston Astros are leaving town after getting swept for the second series straight. They welcome the A’s who just swept them in Oakland last weekend.

The Rangers get the Athletics in a much better spot for them on Thursday night, even if they have lost 6 games in a row. The A’s travel east to Texas for this game, while the Rangers have settled in at home. Miguel Gonzalez takes the pill for the Rangers and is coming off of a six-inning, 5/0 K/BB, one earned run performance against these A’s last week. He has a great 9.5% HR/FB rate and a decent 4.09 FIP at home versus a 5.48 FIP on the road. Gonzalez has a 16.4% line drive rate over the second half of the season that is actually very good.

Texas pesters left-handed starters to the tune of 5.4 runs per game, and they will get one here with Sean Manaea taking the mound. He’s been hit hard over his last 3 starts with a 1.84 WHIP and hasn’t lasted an average of 5 innings over the same time frame. Manaea has also been dealing with a back issue, which delayed this start a few days. He’s put up a .331 BAA over the second half of the season along with a 4.99 FIP, so don’t let Texas’ recent form make you forget that. I’ll take the Rangers on the moneyline to win here as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Texas Rangers MLBest Line Offered at 5Dimes
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Speaking of going east, the Marlins return home after getting hammered in Colorado this week and look to a Rookie called up from AA to get them a win. Our MLB handicapper doesn’t think that will go well.

Atlanta vs. Washington

Dillon Peters is short, but being a lefty he is going to get a look because he has a low-90’s fastball and a good curveball when on. His control has been absolute shit since coming up to the majors though, and his 5.26 BB/9 rate is a way to lose a game right quick. He also can’t get left-handers out at all. Albeit over a small sample size, Peters is giving up a robust .526 BAA against left-handers in the majors. With expanded rosters the Braves can load their lineup with lefties on Thursday. You might not recognize some of the names, but they will be effective.

Julio Teheran was on a lot of red flag lists early in the season because of his drop in velocity. He’s been much better in the second half of the season as his K/9 rate has increased from 6.53 to 8.32. He’s also dropped his FIP from 5.49 to 4.16 over the same timeframe. Another thing with Teheran is that he is much better on the road and carries an elite 2.84 ERA over that split. I’ll back that split here and take the Braves as a moneyline dog as one of my Thursday MLB selections.

MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves MLBest Line Offered at 5Dimes
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2017 MLB Record, 213-186-11, +12.99 units

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