Picks of the Day for September 27th

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Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 12:21 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 12:21 PM GMT

With the end of the season upon us, some square plays are obviously going to stick out with teams playing for something and others not. Our MLB handicapper looks at two of those plays with sights on letting it rip with the public money.

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2017 MLB Record, 211-185-11, +11.99 units (1 Pending)

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies

A team desperate for a win meets a pitcher in a serious swoon in the last week of September. Our MLB handicapper sees no need to take a contrarian stance with the matchup at hand.

Adam Conley starts this game for the Marlins at Coors Field, and his 10.49 ERA over his last 3 games may not play well. His 2.16 WHIP over the same timeframe might not play either. Conley has a 5.42 FIP on the season over 100.1 innings pitched and has a 38.1% hard-hit rate and 45.0% pull rate that will definitely not play well at Coors. Conley’s velocity is also down this year and has dropped from 91 mph to 89.6 mph on average for his fastball. He allows a .282 BAA against right-handers on the year and an overall .286 BAA over the second half.

Conley will go up against Jon Gray, who is having a great season by Rockies pitcher’s standards. He has a 3.14 FIP on the year over 104.1 innings pitched and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in 12 straight starts. This includes a start on the road at Miami on August 11th. Gray is especially hot over his last 3 starts and has a 25/2 K/BB rate to show for it. I’ll back this hot pitcher with a team playing a game that matters, taking the Rockies on the run line at plus odds for one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Picks: Colorado Rockies RLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers

The Reds come into this game having lost 7 in a row now, and face a team fighting for their playoff lives. A pitching mismatch has our MLB handicapper looking to the run line for wagering value once again.

Fast-rising Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers gets this important start, as the rookie looks to improve on his 2-2 record over 40.2 innings pitched. He’s done well so far with a 3.72 FIP on the year and has an above average 7.7% HR/FB rate. Woodruff is murder against right-handers this year, with a .154 BAA on the season. However, he does have a weakness against left-handers this year with a .329 BAA over 18.2 IP. The Reds, other than Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto, don’t have the lefties to take advantage of this split though, so Woodruff has a chance to pitch a gem here.

Woodruff faces the returning Homer Bailey, getting his last start of his abbreviated 2017 campaign. He’s got a 6.96 ERA to show for it, as well as a nasty 4.18 BB/9 rate. Bailey has allowed a .343 BAA against right-handers this year, and unlike Woodruff’s weakness above, the Brewers should be able to take advantage of this. Bailey has a 4.87 career ERA against Milwaukee in his career, and has won 2 matchups this year, but has also given up a home run or more in each one. I’ll take a motivated Brewer team and the superior pitcher on the run line at plus odds as another Wednesday MLB selection.

Free MLB Picks: Milwaukee Brewers RLBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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