Picks of the Day for September 25th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, September 25, 2017 12:19 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 25, 2017 12:19 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop looks to go Under hunting on this Monday before the end of the MLB regular season. Read on as he finds us two value wagers for our Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 208-185-11, +8.99 units

L.A. Angels vs Chicago White Sox

With the Los Angeles Angels going into a September swoon to sink their playoff chances, our MLB handicapper looks to fade a deflated team going up against a White Sox team in rebuilding mode. He’ll choose to do this with another bet on the Under.

Ricky Nolasco of the Angels did not start the year well, but he has brought his performance back to norms by limited the long ball to a 11.0% HR/FB rate over the second half of the season. He’s been a perfectly average starter over his last seven starts and has allowed more than 3 earned runs in only two of them. He has yet to face the White Sox this year, but with the current state of the White Sox rotation being mostly AAA call ups it doesn’t really matter.

And then there is the White Sox’ James Shields, who has not given up more than 4 earned runs in a start in his last nine appearances. He’s been perfectly average over the last two months, and has his season long .240 BAA at home overall and .192 BAA against right handers at home is a positive sign in this spot. With the total line sitting at 10 and the wind blowing slightly in as I write this, I’ll take the Under here as a value play as a Monday MLB selection.

Free MLB Pick: Under 10 RunsBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies

Our MLB handicapper has been successful at picking off Unders in the rarified Colorado air, and he looks at another high line on Monday with value on the downside.

The Colorado Rockies have cashed the Under in 10 of their last 12 games, as their offense has struggled of late. In the Rockies last seven games they have averaged just 3.7 runs, although most of those have come on the road. They’ll face Miami’s Odrisamer Despaigne in this match up, and he has a nasty road split and has put up a 7.88 ERA in that situation. However, he has also been a nightmare against right-handers with a .169 BAA over 21.1 innings pitched. Now the Rockies have an outfield to take advantage of Despaigne’s lefty split of .303, but they won’t be able to load their lineup like some teams could against that split.

Pitching for the Rockies is Tyler Chatwood, who has been below average with a 4.99 FIP on the season. He has a 4.04 FIP in September though, and holds right handers to a .224 BAA. With the Rockies in a fight for the last Wild Card spot I also don’t think that Chatwood will be left on the mound to struggle should he run into trouble. We could see the Rockies playing matchups with their expanded roster and bullpen early tomorrow, as they could pick up an important win in the playoff race. I’ll take Under this inflated total of 12 as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 12 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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