Picks of the Day for September 21st

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, September 21, 2017 4:46 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 21, 2017 4:46 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper comes off an easy sweep of Wednesday's action. Here he finds two valuable lines in late games as he makes today's MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 204-182-10, +8.16 units

 

CH White Sox vs Houston Astros  
 

The Houston Astros have everything wrapped up in the AL West and the White Sox have nothing to lose. With a top prospect on the mound, our MLB handicapper likes the idea of this game staying close.

Carson Fulmer starts this game for the Chicago White Sox, and the former 2015 8th overall pick in the draft has been serviceable over his last few starts giving up just one earned run in each. He went six innings in each of those games as well, giving up a total of 7 hits over 12.0 innings pitched. I love his early splits in limited action, as Fulmer is only giving up a .167 BAA to lefties and .219 BAA to righties over his first 18.0 innings pitched.

The Astros are coming off of a 4-3 win last night against the White Sox as a -370 moneyline favorite at BookMaker. They couldn’t put James Shields away in that game as the run line was a winner for the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel gets the start in this game opposite of Fulmer, and he’s developed some control and dinger issues of late. He’s given up a home run in four straight games coming into this one and is also running a 3.88 BB/9 rate in the second half of the season. He got lit up by the White Sox in early August, giving up 8 earned runs in 4 IP as a -250 favorite. Keuchel is an even bigger favorite now and sits at -325 at BookMaker. I will take the opportunity to reduce my risk and still take plus odds with a wager on the White Sox +1.5 as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

 

Free MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5 +135Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres  

 

A forgotten arm in Colorado has returned to early success since coming off of the DL, and the lack of name recognition has the Rockies getting excellent value on Thursday night.

Since coming off of the DL on September 11th, Tyler Anderson of the Rockies has yet to give up a run. He’s a big part of the Colorado rotation going forward because of his tendency to induce greater than average ground ball rates. And indeed, his groundball rate since returning from the DL is a stellar 60%. You just can’t get blown out often with a ground ball rates that high, and as a bonus, his line drive rate since coming back is at 12.0%. Anderson is coming off of a 6-inning shutout win of the Padres, the team he will face tonight.

Fresh off of signing an extension, Clayton Richard gets the start for the Padres. His last start was also against the Rockies, who he has been rocked by this year, losing his last two. He carries a 5.62 ERA and 1.67 WHIP against Colorado, a team that is crushing lefties on the season to the tune of 5.4 runs per game and a .276 BAA. I’ll take the opportunity to grab a team 14-wins better than another at a valuable line with a wager on Colorado on the moneyline this evening.

 Free MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies +118Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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