Picks of the Day for September 20th

mlb picks of the day

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, September 20, 2017 12:37 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 20, 2017 12:37 PM GMT

With the season winding to a close it will become harder to find value in lines as trends are fully in place. Mark Lathrop therefore finds a rookie call-up to fade and a square play to tail for his Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

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2017 MLB Record, 202-181-10, +7.16 units (1 Pending)

 

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

Sometimes a play presents itself in which you just have to lay the chalk. Our MLB handicapper plans on doing just that as he backs Chris Sale and the Red Sox on Wednesday night.

Wade Miley of the Orioles is coming off of a terrible start against the Yankees in which he gave up 6 earned runs and recorded just one out. Looking at the pitch data for the game his velocity was off and he was leaving everything up in the zone. Probably didn’t need pitch data to realize that after seeing the box score. Miley allows a robust .297 BAA to right-handers on the season, which will be taken advantage of by the Red Sox in this game. He won his last decision against the Red Sox, but did give up 7 hits in 5 innings pitched.

The Red Sox will counter with Chris Sale who has had his occasional hiccup but has dominated the Orioles in two starts this year. Over 14 innings pitched against them this season, Sale has put up a 20/3 K/BB rate and 5 earned runs. He also has a .210 BAA against lefties and .203 BAA against righties, so he doesn’t have many holes to take advantage of like Miley does above. It’s square, but with the Red Sox in it and the Orioles rolling over I will take Boston on the run line as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox RLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves

With a pitcher carrying a nasty scouting report facing another veteran working with smoke and mirrors, our MLB handicapper will fade both with a selection on the Over for this Wednesday night game in Atlanta.

Gio Gonzalez has been on our fade list for quite some time, as his 4.21 xFIP is much higher than the 2.68 ERA he is putting up. He has lost two of his last three starts with one of those coming on September 12th against these Atlanta Braves. He is 0-2 in three starts against the Braves this year and has given up a home run or two in each start. Gonzales has a .245 BABIP on the road this year, which is way lower than his career average. There is just not enough batted ball discrepancies versus past years to suggest this is anything but luck.

Facing the Nationals is Luke Sims of the Braves in his 8th start of the year. Reports are that Sims throws batting practice quality pitches a lot of the time and the results support that observation. Sims is carrying a 5.11 FIP and has allowed a .278 BAA over his first 44.0 MLB innings pitched. His velocity is down 3 ticks since where it started at the beginning of the year, which has him getting tagged at a level in which he wasn’t in the minors. Sims lack of stuff, along with Gonzalez due for regression, has me taking Over 9 runs at 5Dimes as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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