Picks of the Day for September 19th

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 12:46 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 19, 2017 12:46 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots another two games with value on the Over side of the total. Read on as he picks up where he left off yesterday in finding the offense on the Tuesday MLB betting card.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/GtCU8xKGEXY", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Minnesota Twins vs N.Y. Yankees

With both the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees holding AL Wild Card spots coming into this series, it is only the Yankees that have the chance to knock Minnesota out of position. A bet on the side is too risky for our MLB handicapper, so he turns to the total for value.

I’ve spoke of Jose Berrios’ road woes a few times since Labor Day, and the trend still carries in this game at Yankee Stadium. He carries a 5.00 road FIP into this matchup with road K/9 and BB/9 rates that have strong negative road splits. After winning seven of his first eight starts, Berrios has won 5 decisions in his last 15. His line drive rate has also increased in the second half of the season from 16.5% to a terrible 25.8%. This line drive rate has come at the expense of his ground ball rate – not a good sign.

Berrios will face CC Sabathia of the Yankees, who is getting extra rest coming into this start and hasn’t pitched for 8 days. Sabathia has developed a bit of a dinger problem over the second half of the season, at his HR/FB% has almost doubled from 12.5 to 23.7 over that timeframe. Righties have done all of the damage against him this year, as he has allowed 18 home runs to right-handers and none to lefties in 2017. There is definitely a weakness there to be taken advantage of. Both of these pitchers appear to have untrustworthy tendencies in this spot, so I will take the Over of 8.5 as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants

An NL West matchup that matters for the Rockies more than the Giants features a young Rockies pitcher that has started to fade down the stretch. Still, a very low total is offered to bettors and our MLB handicapper is taking the Over.

German Marquez of the Rockies has been pounded in his last three starts having given up a .354 BAA, .625 SLG, and 20.0% HR/FB rate. He’s been hammered in his two starts against San Francisco as well, giving a 11.88 career ERA and 2.52 WHIP. Both of those starts came against the Giants at AT&T Park and went well over the listed total.

Marquez will face Johnny Cueto, who has developed a control issue since coming back from the DL in the beginning of September. He’s basically going to walk you or strike you out the way things are going right now. He pitched well on the road against the Rockies two weeks ago, yet the 53.8% ground ball rate in that game does not follow his typical trend. Colorado hits righties well, (.271 BAA) so I don’t think that success is sustainable. I’ll be taking Over the reasonable line of 8 runs at 5Dimes as one of my Tuesday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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