Picks of the Day for September 16th

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Mark Lathrop

Saturday, September 16, 2017 2:06 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 16, 2017 2:06 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop either starts trends or stops them, and he offers his apologies to the city of Cleveland for yesterday's pick. On Saturday he goes back to in-depth pitching analysis to make his MLB Picks of the Day.
 

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros  

Two pitchers due for negative regression meet on Saturday afternoon in Houston. With two pitchers we can’t trust and offenses that we can our only option – and value play – is to take the Over.

Erasmo Ramirez has been running a decent ERA in the second half of the season for Seattle, yet there are signs that the success he has had is luck that could be running out. He has allowed more home runs in less innings in the 2nd half, and his FIP is running at 5.10 against a 3.06 ERA. BABIP also indicates a bit of luck for Ramirez, as his .200 mark looks to regress against a career BABIP of .276. How lucky is Ramirez? Even though he gave up 2 home runs against Houston just two starts ago, he left that game with only 2 earned runs as they were solo shots.

Dallas Keuchel starts for the Astros and we don’t need statistics that calculate luck trends to know that he is heading in the wrong direction. In the second half of the season, after coming back from the DL no less, his K/9 rate has dropped from 8.21 to 6.40 and his BB/9 rate has risen from 2.14 to 3.98. That has also correlated to a WHIP increase from 0.87 to 1.48 over the same period. What we have here are two average pitchers at this time with a total of 8.5 on the board with great offenses to boot. This is an easy Over call for me in Houston as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day. 

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

A good pitcher is obviously broken and on a bad team; having our MLB handicapper wondering why he is even starting here against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Madison Bumgarner is a broken pitcher right now. After starting the season with an average velocity in the mid-90’s, he’s had starts in the last month with average fastball velocities that haven’t broken 90 mph. Pitchers can deal with declines of velocity over time, and make adjustments, but not this quickly. Bumgarner’s HR/FB rate has doubled from the beginning of the year and his FIP has increased from 2.60 to 4.46.

Bumgarner will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are in the middle of a playoff chase. Zack Greinke gets the start for Arizona and he is in the midst of a typical Greinke season; 16-6 with a 2.99 ERA over 186.1 innings pitched. His strikeout rate is the best it has been since 2011 and he has a fantastic 200/40 K/BB rate on the year. This line is a little chalky with a road favorite, but I see a convergence of motivation and superior pitching. I’ll take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at -135 at 5Dimes as one of my Saturday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks MLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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