Picks of the Day for September 15th

Mark Lathrop

Friday, September 15, 2017 12:45 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 15, 2017 12:45 PM UTC

Two pitchers in great spots lead to two picks that our expert MLB handicapper will be wagering on for the Friday MLB betting card. Read on as he breaks down his Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/OtvmVtoXWqk", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Our MLB handicapper spots a road underdog pitcher with value on the Friday MLB betting card, and even with a pitcher coming off of the DL he is worth backing.

It may be too little too late, but the Mariners rotation is getting its stars back with just a few weeks to go in the regular season. Only 3 games back in the Wild Card race, they have a motivational edge in this game against the Houston Astros who have the AL West division race all but wrapped up. James Paxton takes the mound in this game for his first start off of the DL, and after his last stint on the DL in May he pitched fantastic against the Rockies. In addition to that, Paxton has dominated the Astros this season and has given up just one earned run in 20 innings pitched with a 20/4 K/BB rate. He has a stellar 1.84 FIP on the road and 1.77 FIP in the 2nd half of the season.

Interestingly enough, Charlie Morton’s 3 starts against the Mariners this year have all come against Paxton. He went 0-2 in those starts and carries a 4.58 ERA against the Mariners. One of the reasons he has failed to have success is his .287 BAA split against right handers on the year. The Mariners terrorize pitchers who can’t get righties out, as their stars are lefties and their marginal players have success in those situations. I’ll take Paxton in a rare underdog spot on the moneyline as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners MLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians are on quite a roll we’ve heard. Our MLB handicapper simply sees this as a spot to fade a pitcher due for regression in Jason Vargas.

After posting a .242 BAA and 3.79 FIP in the first half of the season, Jason Vargas of the Royals has put up a .306 BAA and 6.38 FIP in the second half. After picking up winning decisions in 12 of his first 15 starts, Vargas has only won 3 of his last 13 starts. He recently started against Cleveland in back-to-back games in mid-August and lost them both, never making it past 5 innings and giving up 4 earned runs in each.

Trevor Bauer has not had the same experience for Cleveland coming into this game, and has not given up an earned run in any appearance this season. Bauer is trending in the right direction at the right time turning his 5.26 first half FIP into a 3.34 second half FIP with improvements in both K/9 and BB/9 rates. With the pitching matchup skewed towards the Indians and the most momentum we’ve ever seen for a team I will take Cleveland on the run line as one of my Friday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Cleveland Indians RLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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